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DFS NBA: DraftKings Tip Sheet 12/30

Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green drives toward the basket.
Russ Isabella/USA TODAY Sports

Games to Target

Philadelphia at Sacramento (Over/Under 212): DeMarcus Cousins will not be suspended for this game and he should feast in this matchup. Ish Smith is the 76er to target, as he should have no problem racking up stats against the defenseless Kings.

Golden State at Dallas (O/U 209.5): Likely no Stephen Curry tonight opens up a ton of value on the other Warriors’ studs. Deron Williams will miss the game as well, so you can fire up the J.J. Barea value machine once again.

News and Notes

  • Elfrid Payton (ankle) is a game-time decision against the Nets. If he sits, Victor Oladipo is a great option at shooting guard, as he’ll take over in the starting lineup most likely.
  • Jeremy Lin (ankle) and Spencer Hawes (back) are out, while Al Jefferson (knee) and Nicolas Batum (toe) are questionable for the Hornets. Monitor this situation, because a ton of value could pop up as things get finalized.
  • Jordan Hill (dental work) is out, and C.J. Miles (back) and Myles Turner (finger) are questionable for the Pacers. If this trio sat out, there could be big value for guys like Ian Mahinmi and Lavoy Allen.
  • Doug McDermott (knee) is questionable. His absence wouldn’t mean much, but it’d give more time to the likes of Nikola Mirotic and Tony Snell.
  • Derrick Favors (back) is a questionable against the Timberwolves. If he sits, there isn’t likely to be much value as far as a replacement goes, but the Timberwolves get a slight boost without his defensive presence.
  • For those that missed it, Eric Bledsoe (knee) is out for the season. He’s been replaced in the starting lineup by Devin Booker, with Brandon Knight handling point guard duties.
  • Tim Duncan (knee) is questionable against the Suns. This is a winnable game for the Spurs without their stars, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Duncan take a rest.
  • Festus Ezeli (toe) is out and Stephen Curry (leg) is doubtful for the Warriors. That means Shaun Livingston is a value play, while Klay Thompson becomes an elite option at shooting guard with the extra offensive responsibility.
  • Deron Williams (hamstring) remains out. J.J. Barea will see if he can continue his hot streak in his place.
  • Jahlil Okafor (knee) will come off the bench against the Kings. This makes things a bit murkier, and I’m probably off of Nerlens Noel as a result.
  • Damian Lillard (foot) could return tonight versus the Nuggets. This is going to be one to monitor, but C.J. McCollum is a great play should Lillard sit out again.

Point Guard

Stud to Target

Kemba Walker, CHA ($7,600): If Nicolas Batum were to miss this game, Walker would be my top point guard to target. I don’t usually like to pick guys playing directly against Chris Paul, but Walker’s usage and minutes would be very secure with Batum and Jeremy Lin unable to go. He’s priced in a way that makes him very easy to fit into lineups as well.

Others to consider: Isaiah Thomas, BOS ($7,800) – John Wall, WAS ($9,700)

Value Play

Shaun Livingston, GS ($3,500): With Steph Curry unlikely to play, Livingston takes center stage as the value play at point guard tonight. He isn’t much of a scorer, but he can do enough across to the stat sheet to meet value at this price.

Shooting Guard

Stud to Target

Klay Thompson, GS ($7,400): Another beneficiary of the massive void left by Curry, Thompson stands to gain the most with his expanded role. We already know how deadly of a scorer that he can be, and now he’s in line to be the primary offensive threat for Golden State.

Others to consider: Will Barton, DEN ($7,100)

Value Play

Jeremy Lamb, CHA ($4,000): Wait until the inactives for this game are announced, but Lamb is a good value should there be a few openings in the Charlotte lineup. The one-time fantasy darling has scoring upside, so if guys like Batum and Jefferson miss, he could be counted on to fill that void.

Small Forward

Stud to Target

Gordon Hayward, UTA ($7,500): If Derrick Favors sits again, this could turn into an offensive game. That means good things for Hayward who has three 40 DraftKings-point games in his last four.

Others to consider: Paul George, IND ($8,700)

Value Play

P.J. Tucker, PHX ($4,100): Tucker has seen monster minutes in his past two games, and could be one of the guys who sees a different role with Eric Bledsoe out for the year. He’ll never be a scorer, but he’s the type of guy who can put up a variety of stats to make value when he’s priced this low.

Power Forward

Stud to Target

Draymond Green, GS ($9,300): Given his recent form and the absence of Steph Curry, how can you fade Green? He’ll undoubtedly become the team’s primary facilitator, and he does so many other things that his floor is insanely high. He’s one to build around tonight.

Others to consider: DeMarcus Cousins, SAC ($10,000) – Thaddeus Young, BKN ($7,200)

Value Play

Taj Gibson, CHI ($5,500): We’re slowly reaching the ceiling on Gibson, but it’s not quite there yet. Keep rolling him out there while the Bulls deal with injuries and continue to give him all the minutes that he can handle at power forward.

Center

Stud to Target

DeAndre Jordan, LAC ($7,500): He’s a different player without Blake Griffin, as evidenced by his back-to-back big performances on DraftKings. He should continue to thrive against a weak interior for the Hornets.

Others to consider: Brook Lopez, BKN ($7,000) – Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN ($6,800)

Value Play

Gorgui Dieng, MIN ($5,000): He saw a drastic minutes drop against the Spurs, but he has a much better matchup against the reeling Jazz tonight. There are some cheaper options with upside – Marreese Speights, Lavoy Allen – but none of them have the built-in minutes that Dieng appears to have locked up in Minnesota.

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