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DFS NBA: DraftKings Tip Sheet 12/26

Dec. 3, 2015 - PAUL GEORGE (13) posts up. The Portland Trail Blazers hosted the Indiana Pacers at the Moda Center. (Photo by David Blair/Zuma Press/Icon Sportswire)
David Blair/Zuma Press/Icon Sportswire

Games to Target

Houston at New Orleans (Over/Under 211): Both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back, but I really like taking a stud from this game – James Harden or Anthony Davis – to build around. Complementary guys like Tyreke Evans or Trevor Ariza are also interesting, as this game has the highest total on the board.

Indiana at Minnesota (O/U 206): This game could turn lopsided in favor of Indiana, but it’s a good spot for Paul George here. For Minnesota, I like Gorgui Dieng for cash games, and don’t mind Ricky Rubio or Karl-Anthony Towns in tournament formats.

News and Notes

  • Amir Johnson (foot) is expected to return tonight for the Celtics. Pour one out for Kelly Olynyk as a value play, because that’s probably over for now.
  • Carmelo Anthony (ankle) is back tonight, though I don’t think I’ll have any of him tonight. Kristaps Porzingis remains a great tournament play for me.
  • Emmanuel Mudiay (ankle) is out, and Jameer Nelson (illness) and Danilo Gallinari (ankle) are both questionable against the Spurs. There could be value here, but the Nuggets are in San Antonio, so there are probably better places to look.
  • Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili will sit out against the Nuggets for rest. Kawhi Leonard gets a big boost for me, unless of course he joins them on the sidelines.
  • Deron Williams (hamstring) is out against the Bulls. J.J. Barea and Raymond Felton are good values tonight.
  • Derrick Favors (back) is questionable against the Clippers. It’s impossible to tell exactly who’d replace Favors – the favorite is Jeff Withey – but the odds are that it’d be a committee approach with no clear beneficiary.
  • Jahlil Okafor (knee) is questionable tonight. I wouldn’t recommend playing a big against Phoenix, but Jerami Grant could be a solid play should Okafor sit.
  • Markieff Morris (suspension) will not play tonight. You weren’t playing him anyways, I hope.
  • Damian Lillard (foot) is out tonight. With Lillard out, C.J. McCollum is a fantastic play at shooting guard.

Point Guard

Stud to Target

Brandon Knight, PHX ($7,400): Knight isn’t priced like a stud, but he could be one tonight against Philadelphia. His upside is tremendous, and he should have little trouble reaching value against the host of guards the 76ers have on their roster.

Others to consider: Chris Paul, LAC ($8,700) – Reggie Jackson, DET ($7,500)

Value Play

J.J. Barea, DAL ($4,300): Deron Williams is out tonight, so Barea will emerge as one of the chalk values of the night. He exploded for 53 DK points in his last game – he also played 41 minutes – and anything remotely close to that production would be a major steal at this price.

Shooting Guard

Stud to Target

Jimmy Butler, CHI ($7,500): Butler’s price is still a bargain on DraftKings, and I don’t mind exploiting that in a decent matchup with the Mavericks. Most nights you can pencil him in for 35 DK points, which would be perfectly fine at his price tag.

Others to consider: James Harden, HOU ($10,400)

Value Play

Rodney Hood, UTA ($4,600): Hood’s last three games have seen him drop DK totals of 27, 29 and 26 while playing minutes totals of 32, 34 and 37. That sounds like a reliable fantasy option to me, and at a fair price.

Small Forward

Stud to Target

Paul George, IND ($9,100): George’s red-hot start has faded, but he still has put up 40 DK points in three of his last four, with the lone dud coming against Kawhi Leonard and the Spurs. Things should be easier against the Timberwolves, even if talented defender Andrew Wiggins is assigned to George.

Others to consider: Kawhi Leonard, SA ($8,600)

Value Play

Evan Fournier, ORL ($5,000): This is a bit scary because Miami is so good defensively, but Fournier is putting up fantasy points like he did early on in the season. With three straight games of 30 DK points, he’s a decent value option at the position if you don’t want to pay up.

Power Forward

Stud to Target

Kevin Love, CLE ($7,900): Love shot the ball horribly last night against the Warriors, but still managed 43 DK points on the night. Things should go more smoothly against Portland, where the Cavaliers will look to recover from a tough matchup last night.

Others to consider: Anthony Davis, NO ($10,200)

Value Play

Taj Gibson, CHI ($4,900): With Joakim Noah out, it’s clear that Gibson is going to see a ton of time on the court. He’s seen over 32 minutes in his last two games, and has put up around 30 DK points in each contest.

Center

Stud to Target

DeAndre Jordan, LAC ($6,800): Derrick Favors may miss this game, and if he does, Jordan becomes my top center to target. His price is reduced because the Jazz are traditionally tough against centers, but without Favors and Rudy Gobert, that likely won’t be the case.

Others to consider: Hassan Whiteside, MIA ($7,200)

Value Play

Gorgui Dieng, MIN ($5,500): He isn’t the dirt-cheap steal he used to be, but Dieng is a nice cap-relief option at center against the Pacers. He has the potential to see huge minutes and put up monster double-doubles, and his price is still near bargain value.

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