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DFS NBA: DraftKings Tip Sheet 12/19

Derick E. Hingle/USA TODAY Sports

We’ve got four games on the main slate for tonight, which means making some difficult decision in some shallow position pools.

Going into the night where there isn’t a ton to go over in terms of news seems like a great time to remind everyone to monitor outside circumstances when you evaluate games. I mention this because the Chicago Bulls are playing a game tonight after participating in an absurd four-overtime game just last night. Many major players for the Bulls registered 50+ minutes, so taking that into account – for both sides – is something you want to be doing.

This can be applied each night, travel and rest clearly affect player performance, but tonight is a good night to remind the veteran DFSers to be extra critical in that area of analysis.

Today’s news and notes:

  • Nicolas Batum (illness) is probable. If he plays, he’s in a phenomenal spot against the Wizards.
  • Otto Porter (thigh) is questionable, and it looks like Jared Dudley could be the fill-in should he sit. I have no interest in either player.
  • Pau Gasol (rest) will sit out for the Bulls, giving Taj Gibson, Nikola Mirotic and Joakim Noah a boost.
  • Tony Allen (knee) will again be a game-time decision, but you probably shouldn’t play him anyways.
  • Ty Lawson (suspension) will be out, but it really doesn’t change much for the Rockets. Patrick Beverley gets a modest boost.

Remember to check the news up until tip:

BUILDING BLOCKS – Studs and Must-Have Values to Build Your Core Lineup

Chris Paul, PG, LAC ($7,800): Paul is still quite underpriced and now gets to take on one of the worst defenses in basketball. Patrick Beverley is a solid defender, but I’m not sure he’s good enough to keep me off of Paul at this price in this spot.

Joakim Noah, C, CHI ($5,100): Noah is the value play of the night as he should start for Pau Gasol and see a slight minutes increase. With his ability to accumulate triple-double stats and defensive stats, Noah has big upside at only $5.1K.

More studs to consider: James Harden, SG, HOU ($10,700) – Paul George, SF, IND ($9,300) – Blake Griffin, PF, LAC ($8,800)

BARGAINS – Complementary Players Who Look To Have Favorable Pricing

Kemba Walker, PG, CHA ($7,300): The Wizards are 19th in point-guard defense over the last three weeks, making Walker a solid play at his price. His usage will drop a bit from last game with Nicolas Batum back, but he doesn’t have to provide elite numbers at this price tag.

Patrick Beverley, PG, HOU ($5,000): Beverley has been remarkably consistent this season, although his upside isn’t very high at all. Still, you have to consider him on such a short slate given that he can supply 20-25 DraftKings points with near-certainty.

Gary Neal, SG, WAS ($4,200): I don’t love many of the options at shooting guard outside of James Harden tonight, and it’s going to be tough to build a strong roster with Harden as the main piece, unless some value opens up. Neal is a solid second option for me, as he should start for a battered Wizards team. Neal is a scoring dependent player, but the Hornets have struggled to defend the shooting guard position as of late.

Matt Barnes, SF, MEM ($5,300): Barnes has been a beast in his new role outside of a down game against Chicago. I don’t know if I’d expect 30+ DK points from him going forward, but if he gets a full starter’s workload, he can definitely hit 25+ DK points.

Carmelo Anthony, SF, NY ($8,300): The Bulls are going to be tired after their 4OT game last night, and Melo is relatively rested after his team easily handled the 76ers. The only concern I have with Anthony is Jimmy Butler potentially sliding over to check him.

Marvin Williams, PF, CHA ($5,700): Power forward isn’t pretty tonight, which makes Williams a decent play if you have an otherwise strong roster. He’s getting the workload, and his game translates well to the projected pace of this contest. The Wizards have been a top 10 team against opposing power forwards this season, but Williams’s ability to play outside should help him inch close to value.

Marcin Gortat, C, WAS ($6,300): The Hornets have been getting ripped apart by centers, and Gortat has been phenomenal over the last month or so. With all of the injuries Washington has suffered, they may lean on their man in the middle a bit more tonight.

LOTTERY TICKETS – High Risk, High Reward Plays

John Wall, PG, WAS ($9,300): Wall is dealing with an ankle injury, but will play tonight according to reports. That makes him a high-upside play in tournaments, as his ownership should be down due to injury concerns.

Arron Afflalo, SG, NY ($4,800): Afflalo has been scorching hot in his last two games, but Jimmy Butler’s presence is going to scare plenty of people off tonight. If Butler slides over to Carmelo Anthony, or is just tired from playing over 50 minutes last night, Afflalo could shine again.

C.J. Miles, SF, IND ($5,400): Small forward is – as is often the case – top-heavy tonight. C.J. Miles is a decent value tournament option that’ll pay dividends if he gets hot.

Kristaps Porzingis, PF, NY ($7,400): Porzingis has looked more like a tired rookie lately, but there’s going to be a ton of opportunity for him to rack up peripheral stats in this game tonight. With the Bulls having tired legs and traveling to New York, the rookie could make close to value on rebounds, blocks and steals.

Marc Gasol, C, MEM ($7,300): Center is one of the deeper positions tonight, so paying up for Gasol would be somewhat of a contrarian move. He could have a big game against a small-ball squad in the Pacers.

BUYER’S REMORSE – Reasons for Skepticism

Bulls Guards: They just played four overtimes and now travel to New York. I get that Jimmy Butler survived Tom Thibodeau, but the guy is human.

Jeff Green, SF, MEM ($5,100): The slide down to power forward means that Green gets to match up with Paul George tonight. Best of luck, Jeff.

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