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DFS NBA: DraftKings Tip Sheet 12/16

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It’s a full slate tonight in the NBA with 12 games on the docket. And, with four or so hours left until tip, very little value has opened up within those contests. That surely will change as news trickles out.

On huge nights like this, it can be tough to stay on top of things with DraftKings’ late-swap feature. If I was granted all of the money I lost early in my DFS career because I failed to keep up with news and take a late scratch out of my lineup, I’d be a much wealthier man.

The solution to this problem, at least for me, is to forgo playing the 12 game contests if I can’t be checking my phone or huddled next to my computer. Instead, I join the “turbo” or “late” slate of games that usually takes a sampling of 2-4 games that tip off around the same time. If you’ve never considered this option, give it a try. It’s quite liberating to be able to plug in your lineup and pretty much walk away at 7 p.m.

This way, you can have a life and play DFS. I promise!

Today’s news and notes:

  • Paul George (illness) is probable. I like him as a tournament play.
  • Dwyane Wade (illness) is questionable to face the Nets. It wouldn’t surprise to see the Heat let Wade miss this matchup against a dreadful Brooklyn team, in which case Gerald Green is a nice value play.
  • Tony Allen (knee) appears primed to return against the Bulls. It’ll be interesting to monitor his minutes because the Grizzlies have fundamentally changed how they play basketball, and it doesn’t appear that Allen’s skill set meshes well with their new direction.
  • Nerlens Noel (eye) is out, and the projected starter is Jerami Grant. He’s a solid value, but I like the Grizzlies forwards more.
  • Tim Duncan (rest) is out, which gives LaMarcus Aldridge a slight boost against the Wizards. The Spurs have been historically good so far this season, though, so this game could be a blowout.
  • Greg Monroe (knee) is out. John Henson should get the start, and he’s the only major value to appear so far.

Make sure to check the news up until tip:

BUILDING BLOCKS – Studs and Must-Have Values to Build Your Core Lineup

Jeff Green, SF, MEM ($4,900): The prices on both Green and Matt Barnes haven’t adjusted to their new roles quite yet, so continue to take advantage. I give Green the edge over Barnes because of his role as a scorer for the new-look Grizzlies.

John Henson, PF, MIL ($3,800): Greg Monroe will miss tonight’s contest with a knee issue, so Henson will get more playing time. I’m fading the Bucks tonight for the most part, but the exception is Henson, who should start at center for Milwaukee and provide some solid value.

More studs to consider: Stephen Curry, PG, GS ($10,700) – Blake Griffin, PF, LAC ($9,000) – Andre Drummond, C, DET ($9,100)

BARGAINS – Complementary Players and Punt Plays

Jrue Holiday, PG, NO ($4,700): Holiday still isn’t playing 30+ minutes like we’d want him too, but he doesn’t have to at this price. He’s being remarkably efficient from a fantasy points per minute standpoint, and the Jazz have quietly become a bad defensive team at certain positions without Rudy Gobert.

Kemba Walker, PG, CHA ($7,000): I love Walker’s price given his projected usage and the matchup, so if you’re looking for a mid-tier option with upside, he’s the one. The Magic have improved defensively since their lineup change, but we only need about 35 DraftKings points from Walker tonight, and that’s certainly doable.

Rodney Hood, SG, UTA ($4,300): Hood has been up and down recently due to injuries and game flow, but tonight he should go back to being the reliable option he was early in the year. At $4.3K, you’re probably getting around 30-35 minutes and 20-30 DraftKings points.

Tyreke Evans, SG, NO ($7,300): Evans is the premier shooting guard for me tonight, as his price hasn’t adjusted to his role as primary distributor for the Pelicans – nor has his positional status. As previously mentioned, the Jazz have been struggling to defend point guards, and Evans is technically one for the Pelicans.

Matt Barnes, SF, MEM ($5,100): Barnes has actually been more productive than Jeff Green, but it’s tough to see the scoring being there for Barnes each night. Still, as a heavy-minutes starter – and I expect that to be the case even with Tony Allen returning – Barnes is one of the better value plays on this slate tonight.

Jerami Grant, SF, PHI ($5,000): If you don’t want to play two Grizzlies – and I wouldn’t blame you – Grant is a solid value at small forward as well. With Nerlens Noel sitting this one out, he should draw the start at power forward again.

Chris Bosh, PF, MIA ($7,200): The Heat-Nets game has the lowest total of the night, but Bosh should still get his points as a focal point of Miami’s offense. He’s priced too low for his floor and upside, so I don’t mind using him tonight.

Nikola Vucevic, C, ORL ($6,800): Vucevic’s price has remained steady despite his rising production, and I don’t see a frontcourt player on Charlotte stopping him from grabbing a double-double.

Jahlil Okafor, C, PHI ($6,900): Okafor has been phenomenal as of late, which is why his price just jumped $500 between games. I like him against an undersized Atlanta frontcourt, especially with his minutes virtually guaranteed.

LOTTERY TICKETS – 5 Tournaments Options

Brandon Knight, PG, PHX ($7,500): In a loaded point-guard slate tonight, Knight could go a bit unnoticed. We’ve seen his upside, though, and it’s even higher in the highest projected scoring game of the night.

Gerald Green, SG, MIA ($4,400): The Nets are awful at defending shooting guards and let opponents fire away from three. By God…that’s Gerald Green’s music!

Paul George, SF, IND ($9,700): George has been disappointing in his past few games, which will drive his ownership down. It’s only a matter of time before he bounces back from his illness, making him an elite tournament option tonight.

Derrick Favors, PF, UTA ($7,600): Favors is technically the center for the Jazz right now, and the Pelicans let up a ton of points to the position. You can use him in all formats, but he should have a relatively low ownership percentage tonight.

DeAndre Jordan, C, LAC ($7,000): Jordan is a tournament-only option for me due to blowout risk, but sans Greg Monroe the Bucks should struggle on the inside. That means a ton of boards for Jordan, who always has solid upside due to his defensive stats.

BUYER’S REMORSE – Reasons for Skepticism

John Wall, PG, WAS ($9,500): The Spurs are a death machine, and I don’t like any of the Wizards tonight.

Paul Millsap, PF, ATL ($8,000): Millsap is the king of consistency, but tonight against the 76ers he shouldn’t have to do or play much to lead his team to victory.

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