Tonight’s NBA main slate has a tidy four games, with a fifth game coming earlier in the afternoon. This edition of the tip sheet will only focus on the later four games, which tip at 6 p.m. EST.
The main game for you to target looks like the Kings visiting the Thunder. With an over/under total of 222 — this is an absurd total for any game, by the way — there projects to be a ridiculous amount of fantasy value here. There are three players over $10K in this one, and a host of supporting guys that could help out.
And, as always, I venture into the other games as well. First, today’s news and notes:
- Andrew Bogut (back) is a game-time decision. I like Festus Ezeli if Bogut sits.
- Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (ankle) is out. Bojan Bogdanovic should see extended run, and I have more thoughts on him below.
- Ryan Hollins should continue to start for the Wizards, who are short-handed in the front court. This hasn’t been all that profitable of a situation, however.
Remember to check the news up until tip:
BUILDING BLOCKS – Studs and Must-Have Values to Build Your Core
Wesley Matthews, SG, DAL ($4,800): On today’s slate, finding value you can trust for cash games is quite difficult. Matthews hasn’t been performing at an exceptional level, but he’s playing heavy minutes, which gives him a tolerable floor. The matchup with the Wizards gives him upside too, so he’s my preferred value play today.
Andre Drummond, C, DET ($9,300): You can justify paying up for any of the $10K studs, but I’ll be building around Drummond at a mere $9.3K. Against the Lakers he could easily hit 50 DraftKings points, which will serve as a nice foundation.
Three more studs to consider: Russell Westbrook, PG, OKC ($10,400) — Kevin Durant, SF, OKC ($10,200) — DeMarcus Cousins, PF, SAC ($10,800)
BARGAINS – Complementary Players & Punt Plays
Deron Williams, PG, DAL ($6,600): In the middle-tier of point guards, Williams stands out as a nice play due to the projected pace of the game he’ll be playing in. If you played him during his time in Brooklyn, it may be hard to stomach, but on tonight’s short slate he’s worth a look.
Darren Collison, PG, SAC ($4,600): On the punt side of things, Collison is the most viable option for me. He’s going to be playing in a super fast-paced game against the Thunder, and could see more minutes with his team coming into the second game of a back-to-back.
Bradley Beal, SG, WAS ($7,200): I like John Wall tonight too, but Beal represents the best play at shooting guard in my opinion. His salary is easy to stomach, and his floor is excellent for cash games.
Bojan Bogdanovic, SF, BKN ($3,300): This is a pure punt play, but Bogdanovic will see extra minutes with Rondae Hollis-Jefferson out tonight. He doesn’t need to do much at $3.3K, but he still a bit of a risk given the matchup and talent.
Omri Casspi, SF, SAC ($4,700): Casspi will be playing power forward mostly for the Kings, but at $4.7K he’s a nice way to save money at a top-heavy position. Many in the industry like Chandler Parsons at $4.1K, but I’d rather pay up a bit for the safety of Casspi.
Serge Ibaka, PF, OKC ($6,100): Ibaka hasn’t been a high scorer for the Thunder, but with today’s pool of power forwards, he’s in consideration right after DeMarcus Cousins. The pace of this contest, and Ibaka’s ability to rack up defensive stats, gives him a solid floor tonight.
Festus Ezeli, C, GS ($4,300): My alternative play to Drummond is Ezeli, who should see extended minutes if Andrew Bogut is out. There isn’t a ton of upside here, but at his price tag you really don’t need more than around 20 DraftKings points.
LOTTERY TICKETS – Five Tournament Plays
Rajon Rondo, PG, SAC ($8,800): It’s tough to pay up for Rondo when John Wall, Reggie Jackson and Deron Williams are all cheaper. That makes him a great tournament play in what looks to be a shootout with OKC.
Klay Thompson, SG, GS ($6,300): I’m fading the Golden State-Brooklyn studs for cash tonight because I fear a blowout, but I’ll be on them in tournaments. Thompson’s upside here gets him the nod.
Rudy Gay, SF, SAC ($7,100): Gay hasn’t made value as of late, but a matchup with the Thunder could help him get going. With few high upside options on this slate, I don’t mind taking a flier on him.
Draymond Green, PF, GS ($8,000): See Klay Thompson. Green would be my top power-forward play of the night if I didn’t think this game was going to be a major blowout.
Brook Lopez, C, BKN ($7,600): Lopez will be a fantastic tournament play if the Nets keep it close. He’s been good when given the chance, and could be the one to pay dividends if you fade Drummond.
BUYER’S REMORSE – Reasons for Skepticism
Stephen Curry, PG, GS ($10,700): Curry is a supernova and will score regardless of whether I fade him or not. But with point guard being the deepest position on this slate, I just don’t see myself playing him.