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Not very much has gone wrong for your defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors through the first 50 games, of which they’ve won a mere 46. They’ve been victorious in their past nine in a row, including at Cleveland, versus San Antonio and most recently, Oklahoma City, pretenders to the throne all.
They’re undefeated with Steve Kerr back on the bench after he replaced the woefully underachieving Luke Walton, who was a miserable 39-4 as interim coach. Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson have all stayed remarkably healthy while Andrew Bogut and Harrison Barnes have returned to the fold after their injury absences. It’s hard for any team -or its fanbase- to feel any better about the state of things than the Warriors at this moment.
Which leaves us to nitpick backup center Festus Ezeli’s knee injury and subsequent surgery.
Ezeli has missed the past five games with a wonky left knee and will be out for quite a few more after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on Monday that will reportedly keep him out for six weeks. Kerr has been using Marreese Speights more in Ezeli’s absence, and one suspects he will continue to, though he also has the luxury of employing the universe’s most lethal small-ball lineups at his disposal.
Ezeli, 26, has shown some improvement this season, following up his impressive Finals run. He’s averaging 7.5 points, 5.9 rebounds and 1.2 blocks in nearly 18 minutes a night and has a PER of 18.2, which is excellent for a reserve. His numbers basically project to star-level performance—15, 12 and 2.5 blocks—with starter’s level minutes, though it’s tough to see the Warriors ever giving him 36 minutes a night with their preferred style of play. It’s also hard to envision anyone else being able to, given his fragility and propensity to foul.
Like Barnes, Ezeli will be a restricted free agent this summer, meaning that he can seek offers from anyone but that the Warriors have a right to match. He’s not expected to fetch nearly as much as Barnes, but the NBA grapevine has him getting, at least, eight figures a year -especially with the salary cap rocketing up. At least, a couple of teams out there will view him as a starter and offer him a contract as such. The prevailing wisdom has the Warriors keeping him, as long as no one offers Ezeli something absurd, because Bogut, 31, only has one more year after this left on his deal. The idea is for Ezeli to be groomed just for a little longer and then be Bogut’s successor, possibly taking over as the starter as soon as next season.
October 31, 2015: New Orleans Pelicans guard Jrue Holiday (11) dribbles through Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) and center Festus Ezeli (31) during the game between Golden State Warriors and New Orleans Pelicans at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, LA. (Photograph by Stephen Lew/Icon Sportswire)
It’s never that simple, though. For example, if Kevin Durant, who has a higher scoring average at the Oracle Arena than anyone, and who spent Super Bowl Sunday in Santa Clara moonlighting as a sports photographer for The Player’s Tribune, decides the Bay Area would be a suitable place to ply his trade for the next several years, then the Dubs will have to dump Bogut to make the numbers work, effectively promoting Ezeli by default. And again that’s only if no one makes him a crazy offer.
(Of course with Curry, Thompson, Green and Durant on the same roster they could pick out random fans to be their starting center for the game and be in okay shape.)
The other issue that can’t be ignored is that Ezeli, who’s improved some, hasn’t progressed quite as much as team officials might have wanted him to. The nominal starting lineup still works better with Bogut, especially defensively. Their net rating is +8.5 with a 96.7 defensive rating in 229 minutes with Bogut starting, per NBA.com. With Ezeli it’s a +4.0 net rating with a 103.9 defensive rating in 122 minutes.
When you get to comparable sample sizes, the difference is even more glaring. Substitute Andre Iguodala for Barnes with the starters and Bogut’s played 118 minutes in that lineup and Ezeli’s played 117. The net rating is plus-49.5 with Bogut and just a slightly less ludicrous plus-26.5 with Ezeli, and again the defense was much stingier with Bogut in there.
More than anything though it’s Ezeli’s injury history that casts a shadow over everything. He missed his entire second season with a torn ACL on his right knee and played just 46 games and 504 minutes last year. Six weeks from last Monday would have him returning on Mar. 21 at Minnesota, with 13 games left on the season. If he plays them all, that’s 53 games played this season, but a safer guess is around 50. Should any team feel comfortable about handing a long-term contract at starter’s money for a guy who’s had both knees operated on and hasn’t even played 18 minutes per game yet? Should the Warriors?
Ezeli has potential no doubt, but his fragility may scare off suitors just enough to the point where no one gives him an eye-popping offer, so the decision to match will be that much easier for the Warriors to match. Of course, if he returns and plays well in the playoffs again, then all bets are off. It’s just getting more and more difficult to see Ezeli growing into something more than what he already is.