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From The Courts

NBA DFS: DraftKings tip sheet 11/8

(AP Photo/Brandon Dill)

It’s Election Day! So make sure you go out and get that voting thing out of the way so you can get to the important stuff, like building DFS lineups.

Let’s get right to it.

About Last Night…

  • George Hill (thumb) sat out against the 76ers, resulting in Shelvin Mack starting and playing 28 minutes. Mack and Gordon Hayward tied for the team lead in assists with five apiece.
  • Eric Gordon moved to the bench — he was signed to fill the sixth man role — but his production didn’t increase. The minutes were still at 32, however, so there is some potential here in good matchups.
  • Wizards head coach Scott Brooks is riding his starters right now. Otto Porter (39 minutes) and Marcin Gortat (37) led the way as value plays due to the extra minutes in this phenomenal matchup.
  • Kemba Walker’s line last night: 24 points, 10 assists, two rebounds, five three-pointers, two steals, a block…in 25 minutes. Related: the Pacers are bad on defense.
  • The Clippers (90.4 defensive rating) and Thunder (94.6) are two of the best defenses in basketball to this point and both smacked their opponents on Monday. Specifically for the Thunder, it’s something to monitor because their pace is an asset to fantasy production, but their defense could limit the upside of most opponents.
  • Steph Curry is back. The Warriors continue to struggle defensively, but Curry found his swagger en route to an NBA record 13 three-pointers. I still won’t use him in cash games, but he’s forever an elite tournament option.
  • Darren Collison is back for the Kings tonight and gets a cupcake matchup with New Orleans at home. I’m not using him in cash, but he’s an intriguing tournament play.

Slate Overview

We’ve got six games to choose from tonight and the first tip is at 6 pm EST.

The highest over/under tonight belongs to Suns-Blazers at 218.5. Portland is checking in at a 7.5-point favorite at home, but it’s worth noting that the Suns have been competitive lately, going to down to the wire in their last three games including a matchup with the Blazers that went to overtime.

The other matchup I’m targeting is Minnesota at Brooklyn. The Nets play up in pace, and I like getting the Timberwolves players in a spot that lets them run a bit. The spread here is only 4.5 points in favor of Minnesota and the game total of 208 is the second-highest of the night.

Top implied team totals:

  1. Trail Blazers (vs PHX), 113 implied points
  2. Cavaliers (vs ATL), 108
  3. Timberwolves (@ BKN), 106.25
  4. Suns (@ POR), 105.5
  5. Lakers (vs DAL), 105

Point Guard

The two top salaried players at point guard are my favorite “stud” plays at the position.

Damian Lillard is a very affordable $9.1k entering a great matchup with Phoenix at home. His team has the highest implied point total on the night, and this game projects to be far-and-away the highest scoring one of night, period. Dame has been lighting it up this season, averaging 48.6 DraftKings points, and we’re getting him at his second-lowest price so far.

Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard gestures after hitting the winning basket with .3 seconds remaining in overtime of an NBA basketball game against the Denver Nuggets on Saturday, Oct. 29, 2016 in Denver. Portland won 115-113. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard gestures after hitting the winning basket with .3 seconds remaining in overtime of an NBA basketball game against the Denver Nuggets on Saturday, Oct. 29, 2016 in Denver. Portland won 115-113. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Kyrie Irving is a nice option if you’re looking for a potential stud at a discount. He’ll take on the Hawks at home tonight, and during the 2015-16 regular season he put up 27.5-5-5 averages against Atlanta in two games. He also put up 20 points in three of four games against them in the playoffs, with the one exception a 19-point effort in 22 minutes. That type of scoring provides him a great floor in this spot, especially with his team implied to score the second-most points on this slate.

When looking for value there are a couple pieces of news that should be a priority to monitor. Mike Conley is questionable tonight with a leg issue, and if he were to miss, Wade Baldwin would likely step into the starting role. He costs just $3,000 and is pure upside against turnover-machine Emmanuel Mudiay.

  • Damian Lillard, POR ($9,100)
  • Kyrie Irving, CLE ($7,400)
  • CJ McCollum, POR ($7,100)
  • JJ Barea, DAL ($6,000)
  • Jordan Clarkson, LAL ($4,700)
  • Tim Hardaway Jr., ATL ($3,600)
  • Wade Baldwin, MEM ($3,000) – if Mike Conley out

Shooting Guard

Devin Booker scored 25 DraftKings points against the Blazers two games ago but since has caught fire, putting up 46 and 53.25 DraftKings points. He’s fired up 51 shots, 19 free throws, and dished 10 assists in those games, so the usage is as good as it gets right now. His shooting guard/small forward flexibility has him strongly in consideration tonight.

Deron Williams is questionable, but appears unlikely to play against the Lakers tonight. With Dirk Nowitzki already ruled out, JJ Barea is still a great target despite his $6,000 price tag. Each time he’s received 30-plus minutes this season he has come through with 30-plus DraftKings points, and he dropped 37 DraftKings points in a low scoring affair against the Bucks last time out. The Lakers are a better team this season, but their defense is still exploitable, especially on the wing.

Kyle Korver is out, so you can look towards Tim Hardaway if you have a bit more risk tolerance.

  • CJ McCollum, POR ($7,100)
  • Devin Booker, PHX ($6,600)
  • JJ Barea, DAL ($6,000)
  • Sean Kilpatrick, BKN ($5,400)
  • Lou Williams, LAL ($4,700)
  • Jordan Clarkson, LAL ($4,700)
  • E’Twaun Moore, NO ($4,100)
  • Tim Hardaway Jr., ATL ($3,600)

Small Forward

LeBron James has an argument as the top stud play of the night, and his case is strengthened due to the scarcity of options at small forward. He has back-to-back games of 59 DraftKings points and the Cavaliers have that big team total that implies he will be back at it again tonight.

Second overall pick Brandon Ingram has popped over the last two games with minutes that are trending in the right direction. He’s scored 27 and 18.75 DraftKings points over the last two games while seeing 27 and 25 minutes, respectively. He’s not exactly safe, but he does contribute in virtually every category and works as a punt option if you want to fit the big guns in.

With Kyle Korver out, Thabo Sefolosha also makes sense as a punt play at small forward.

  • LeBron James, CLE ($9,900)
  • Devin Booker, PHX ($6,600)
  • Andrew Wiggins, MIN ($6,000)
  • Danilo Gallinari, DEN ($5,800)
  • Thabo Sefolosha, ATL ($4,000)
  • Brandon Ingram, LAL ($3,500)

Power Forward

There’s a clash of former Kentucky Wildcats in Sacramento tonight, with Anthony Davis and the Pelicans taking on DeMarcus Cousins and the Kings. Of the two, I prefer Cousins; Davis on the second night of a back-to-back, he’s more expensive, and I simply try to avoid playing bigs against Cousins in cash. Unless the Pelicans are going to give Davis the burden of carrying the offense and banging with Boogie in the paint, Cousins should be able to annihilate whatever bigs they throw at him.

March 03, 2016: New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23) reacts to a play during the NBA game between the San Antonio Spurs and the New Orleans Pelicans at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, LA. (Photograph by Stephen Lew/Icon Sportswire)

New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23). (Photograph by Stephen Lew/Icon Sportswire)

Al-Farouq Aminu put up a dud against the Grizzlies last time out, but before that he had DraftKings scores of 33.5, 26.25, 29.5, and 29.5. Even better, he’s played 29 or more minutes in four-of-five games. He’s another guy we can turn to for some value if nothing else opens up.

  • DeMarcus Cousins, SAC ($10,400)
  • LeBron James, CLE ($9,900)
  • Kevin Love, CLE ($7,300)
  • Al-Farouq Aminu, POR ($4,800)

Center

Karl-Anthony Towns has really come alive over the past two games, submitting 60 and 42.5 DraftKings points after a sub-par start to the season. There’s not a player that can match up with him on Brooklyn’s roster, and he should benefit from any increased pace of play that his opposition provides. It’s a close race between Towns and Cousins for top honors at this position.

Andrew Bogut has been relied upon more in the early going with the Mavericks than he was during his time in Golden State. He’s still only $4.2k and has played more than 25 minutes in three-of-four games. He should match Timofey Mozgov’s minutes tonight at the very least.

  • DeMarcus Cousins, SAC ($10,400)
  • Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN ($8,500)
  • Kevin Love, CLE ($7,300)
  • Marc Gasol, MEM ($7,000)
  • Andrew Bogut, DAL ($4,200)

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