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NBA DFS: DraftKings Tip Sheet 10/31

AP Photo/Matt Marton
AP Photo/Matt Marton

What’s better than a Halloween night with the DraftKings and the NBA? Tonight offers a pretty straightforward four-game slate that should be pretty easy to manage while handing out candy to the neighborhood kids.

I am hoping tonight is more “treat” than “trick for me, as I made the awful decision to play Brandon Knight instead of TJ Warren last night. Let’s dive into the notables from yesterday’s slate.

About Last Night…

  • The Warriors’ defense is still…not good. Bigs continue to dominate against the Warriors, with Tyson Chandler and Alex Len combining for 26 boards in the contest. Golden State is going to be fun to target until they get their act together on both ends.
  • Think Earl Watson wants to get TJ Warren some shot attempts? After 18 shots for 30 points in their game against the Thunder, Warren got 21 attempts for 26 points versus the Warriors. He was only $5k last night, and he will be worth another look tonight, even on a back-to-back.
  • Hassan Whiteside got 35 minutes and absolutely lit up the Spurs. A matchup with David Lee and Pau Gasol was a pretty obvious spot for Whiteside, but it adds further proof that the Spurs are going to be a team you can target with bigs.
  • Aside from Russell Westbrook, Andre Drummond might have had the line of the night. He posted a 20-23 game with two steals and three blocks.
  • Speaking of Westbrook, he casually dropped 33-16-12 with a block and a steal. With the obvious caveat of his price reaching unheard of levels, it’s going to be tough for me to fade him in matchups I anticipate him getting a full workload.
  • Marc Gasol only played 29 minutes — even though he put up 20-10 with four three’s (!!!) —  in an overtime tilt on the second night of a back-to-back. David Fizdale is going to be cautious with Mike Conley and Gasol, so monitor these situations carefully.
  • Dirk Nowitzki was a late scratch, and Seth Curry got the start over JJ Barea. Curry submitted a rather unimpressive, scoreless 24 minutes, while Barea logged 31 minutes anchored by 18 points. The Mavericks have shown a tendency to go small this season, but they’ve played three uptempo games (Pacers and Rockets two times), so I want to see how the decide to match up with other squads before consistently targeting Barea.

Slate Overview

It’s Halloween, and we’ve got four games to snack on tonight in the NBA. One game is looking like a real treat, with the Nets taking on the Bulls in Brooklyn. The over/under is the highest on the slate at 212, and the Bulls are a relatively short favorite of six points.

The trick game tonight looks like the Suns at the Clippers. The Suns are traveling for this one after playing all out against the Warriors last night, while the Clippers stay at home after limiting their starters a bit in an earlier victory against the Jazz. The Suns are implied the lowest total of the evening, and the Clippers are installed as the biggest favorites of the night, so don’t go overboard in targeting this one.

Top implied team totals:

  1. Chicago (@ BKN), 109 implied points
  2. LA Clippers (vs. PHX), 108
  3. Toronto (vs. DEN), 106.25
  4. Atlanta (vs SAC), 104.5

Point Guard

The position relatively shallow tonight, especially after the past few slates where it seemed there was an overwhelming amount of options. It looks like it will be prudent to simply take a $6k+ point guard with a team total in the 100’s and roll with it tonight.

Chris Paul, Kyle Lowry, Rajon Rondo, and Jeremy Lin are all on my radar, with Lowry being my favorite despite his disappointing start to the season. He is seeing massive minutes, and he is underpriced as is; he should bounce back with his softest matchup of the year thus far.

If you absolutely need a value play in this spot, Austin Rivers is probably your guy. He’s played 26 and 28 minutes off the bench and could see plenty of usage if the Clippers get the Suns out of the way early.

  • Chris Paul, LAC ($8,500)
  • Kyle Lowry, TOR ($7,400)
  • Rajon Rondo, CHI ($6,400)
  • Jeremy Lin, BKN ($6,300)
  • Austin Rivers, LAC ($3,300)

Shooting Guard

After a few slates with a nice amount of depth at shooting guard, it’s looking a lot like its old self, tonight. The depth is abysmal, and there are really only two options I am strongly considering: Dwyane Wade and DeMar DeRozan.

Wade is the better-priced option of the two, and his floor is nice with his 25.4-percent usage, per NBA.com. He’ll get a nice matchup with the surprisingly feisty Nets, and the Bulls are implied to score the most points tonight according to Vegas.

DeRozan has been scoring seemingly at will, and he’s currently sporting a usage rate of an absurd 40.7-percent, again per NBA.com. That usage is quite obviously unsustainable, but don’t think he’s suddenly not going to shoot after starting out so hot. You can play both DeRozan and Lowry and feel pretty good about it in this pace-up spot.

If you need a punt, it’s Sean Kilpatrick for me, though I wouldn’t advise doing so if safety is your top priority. Kilpatrick has been a high usage guy off the bench for the Nets and has at least nine shot attempts in every game so far this season. His lowest score so far is 20.5 DraftKings points, and while I wouldn’t bet on him averaging more the 20, he’s a cheap option you can turn to if you need him.

  • DeMar DeRozan, TOR ($7,300)
  • Dwyane Wade, CHI ($6,500)
  • Sean Kilpatrick, BKN ($3,600)

Small Forward

Small forward looks a lot like shooting guard tonight: top heavy. However, there is one value play that you can plug in.

TJ Warren has been a monster so far this season, seeing at least 30 minutes in every game with a low-point of 25 DraftKings points. I don’t love the spot for him on the second night of a back-to-back on the road and the lowest implied team total tonight, but with few value plays on the board he’s going to be fairly popular.

  • Rudy Gay, SAC ($6,300)
  • Danilo Gallinari, DEN ($6,000)
  • TJ Warren, PHX ($5,400)

Power Forward

This position is a bit perplexing as this is where you’ll find the majority of the studs tonight, but it’s also where the value appears to lie.

DeMarcus Cousins is always in play, though I likely won’t be using him on DraftKings tonight given the lack of super cheap value. Blake Griffin is in a phenomenal spot, but he can’t be trusted to play a full workload with his team such huge favorites.

Instead, I lean towards Paul Millsap with the studs, as he’s at home in what should be a competitive matchup. Otherwise, I’m focusing on a trio of value plays in Trevor Booker, Kenneth Faried, and Nikola Mirotic.

  • Blake Griffin, LAC ($8,800)
  • Paul Millsap, ATL ($7,900)
  • Trevor Booker, BKN ($4,700)
  • Kenneth Faried, DEN ($4,700)
  • Nikola Mirotic, CHI ($4,700)

Center

Jonas Valanciunas has started out extremely hot this season, dropping 48.25 and 33.25 DraftKings points in the first two games. While Jusuf Nurkic and Nikola Jokic may be awesome offensive talents, neither are all that impressive defensively, so JV may be able to keep it going here. I won’t play Lowry, DeRozan, and Valanciunas in the same lineup, but I think two of three could be reasonable.

If you think that Suns-Clippers stays close, DeAndre Jordan is underpriced at $7,200. He’s started out the season 5-for-17 from the field, and that is certainly going to correct itself sooner than later with Jordan holding a 66.8-percent average from the field over his career. The rebounds and blocks will be there.

  • DeAndre Jordan, LAC ($7,200)
  • Jonas Valanciunas, TOR ($6,700)
  • Justin Hamilton, BKN ($4,000)
  • Alex Len, PHX ($3,900)

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