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NBA DFS: DraftKings Tip Sheet October 30

AP Photo/LM Otero
(AP Photo/LM Otero)

With a good slate of NBA games, your DFS options are aplenty. Here’s our advice.

About Last Night…

  • There’s a three-headed committee at center in Charlotte, and once Roy Hibbert is healthy it’s likely to be four. Frank Kaminsky returned last night and each of he, Cody Zeller, and Spencer Hawes saw at least 20 minutes with Hibbert inactive.
  • Is Avery Bradley a must play? With his current price range (under $6,000) he’s looking like it after averaging over 35 DraftKings points in the first three games.
  • Mike Conley played 24 minutes on the first end of a back-to-back. David Fizdale is going to be cautious with his stars, especially in the early going.
  • Damian Lillard is on fire. He stated he wants to win the MVP award this season, and he’s providing stellar production in the scoring department to go with some unexpected rebounding thus far.
  • Tom Thibodeau is still handing his starters massive minutes. Aside from Ricky Rubio, who got hurt, the fewest minutes played by a Wolves starter was 35 (Gorgui Dieng).

Slate Overview

Another healthy slate tonight with six games on tap. There are three games I’m really looking to target due to the Vegas numbers, but the best one might be the most unexpected: the Warriors at the Suns. The Dubs haven’t figured out their defense and the Suns are built to attack the weaknesses Golden State has shown thus far.

The Jazz at the Clippers is in the early slate, so that game won’t be included today as we focus on the main slate.

Top implied team totals:

  1. Golden State (@ PHX), 117.75 implied points
  2. Oklahoma City (vs LAL), 111
  3. Houston (vs DAL), 111
  4. Phoenix (vs GS), 106.25
  5. Dallas (@ HOU), 105.5

Point Guard

Russell Westbrook is back in play and his team features the second-highest implied team total on this slate at 111 points. His price is extremely high at $12,200, and he’ll need around 60 DraftKings points to meet value. With the Thunder barely fighting off the 76ers and Suns, there’s reason to believe that OKC will need another full work day from Westbrook to put away an upstart Lakers squad tonight.

One of my favorite plays from this pool is Eric Bledsoe, though he may be more of a tournament option. He’s much better than his $7k price tag and he has scored above 30 DraftKings points in two tries this season. An uptempo matchup with the Warriors should bode well for him.

  • Russell Westbrook, OKC ($12,200)
  • James Harden, HOU ($11,300)
  • Eric Bledsoe, PHX ($7,000)
  • Deron Williams, DAL ($5,700)
  • Brandon Knight, PHX ($5,600)
  • Ish Smith, DET ($5,200)
  • JJ Barea, DAL ($4,500)

Shooting Guard

While I didn’t mention him above, James Harden is still on my radar at home against the Mavericks. He’s a little lower on my preferences based on Westbrook’s matchup, but as long as Harden is on the board he will pretty much always be a high-floor option to consider.

I’m high on the Suns tonight, so Devin Booker looks great at his $6.2k price point. His usage will always be high, and the Warriors have allowed big performances to their opponents as they continue to figure out their defense.

One punt that I want to write up: Dion Waiters sits at only $4k against the Spurs. The Heat have the lowest implied team total on this slate, but the price is clearly out of whack for Waiters given his workload and usage. It’ll take some guts to use him, but matchup aside, he’s clearly a value.

  • James Harden, HOU ($11,300)
  • Devin Booker, PHX ($6,200)
  • Brandon Knight, PHX ($5,600)
  • Eric Gordon, HOU ($5,400)
  • JJ Barea, DAL ($4,500)
  • Dion Waiters, MIA ($4,000)

Small Forward

Kevin Durant is unleashed in Golden State and the results were on full display against the Pelicans in his last time out. The Suns are just as bad defensively as New Orleans and this game is going to be a fast-paced affair. Right now, Durant is the safest place to get exposure to the Warriors and their massive implied total.

Two more names to keep an eye on tonight: Tobias Harris and T.J. Warren. Harris is appropriately priced, though on this slate his consistent 30 DraftKings points are handy if you have the extra room. As for Warren, he flashed his massive upside in the overtime loss to the Thunder. He is out there to score, and the opportunity will be there with his team projected to score the fourth-most points on this slate.

James Johnson is listed below, but he’s absolutely a punt play. He’s seeing 25-ish minutes for the Heat, and he has some multi-category upside. Johnson isn’t on the top of my list, however, he’s a minimum-priced guy that helps create a Westbrook-Durant lineup.

  • Kevin Durant, GS ($9,900)
  • Tobias Harris, DET ($5,900)
  • Marcus Morris, DET ($5,100)
  • TJ Warren, PHX ($5,000)
  • James Johnson, MIA ($3,000)

Power Forward

Durant’s teammate, Draymond Green, is a stud power forward worth considering. He’s probably under-priced given his ability to contribute in every category across the board, and he’s come out of the gates with scores of 55.5 and 35.25 on DraftKings.

Dirk Nowitzki is where I am looking for value tonight. He missed the last game against the Rockets with an illness, but he’s back in the lineup tonight. His scoring gives him a nice floor to work with and a rematch with the defenseless Rockets should give Dirk some nice upside.

Another cheap guy to be aware of is Jon Leuer. He’s played 22 and 28 minutes in the first two games — both blowout scenarios, mind you — and should be able to gather at least 20 minutes of action against the Bucks. His ability to grab rebounds lines up nicely against a Bucks team that is weak down low, especially if he matches up with the bench unit and Greg Monroe.

  • Kevin Durant, GS ($9,900)
  • Draymond Green, GS ($7,500)
  • Dirk Nowitzki, DAL ($6,000)
  • Tobias Harris, DET ($5,900)
  • JaMychal Green, MEM ($4,700)
  • Jon Leuer, DET ($3,400)

Center

Both Hassan Whiteside and Andre Drummond sit atop the center pool tonight and there is merit to both. Whiteside is more of a tournament play, but the Spurs are a matchup to target for talented bigs this year after getting smoked by Draymond Green and DeMarcus Cousins in two-of-three contests. Drummond should be able to feast against Milwaukee, but his tendency to get into foul trouble moves him more into the “want” than “need” category.

The price on Marc Gasol — $5,600 — is absolutely awesome. However, I can’t trust him on the second night of a back-to-back, and that puts Marcin Gortat back in play at $5,500.

  • Hassan Whiteside, MIA ($8,000)
  • Andre Drummond, DET ($7,900)
  • Draymond Green, GS ($7,500)
  • Greg Monroe, MIL ($5,700)
  • Marcin Gortat, WAS ($5,500)
  • Dewayne Dedomon, SA ($3,300)

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