Tonight features a pair of series tied 2-to-2, although one of those games is the Toronto-Indiana series that has delivered blowouts and disappointing performances almost every time out.
Toronto is actually a seven-point favorite, and the game total is an ugly 193. The storyline here is the lack of offense that the Pacers have been able to provide outside of Paul George, and that lack of anything that DeMar DeRozan has been able to produce for the Raptors.
In Boston-Atlanta, Atlanta is a 7-point favorite at home. This game total is only a little higher at 198, but it is easily the most attractive game of the two. The Celtics have gone small often, and now feature a starting lineup with Jonas Jerebko and Amir Johnson in the frontcourt, which lends itself to more offense. The Hawks still feature attractive options in their big three with Jeff Teague, Paul Millsap, and Al Horford.
News and Notes
- Ian Mahinmi is still dealing with pain in his lower back and is questionable. This is the same designation he had last game when he was able to come out and put up his best performance of the series. Lavoy Allen, Jordan Hill, and Myles Turner will all benefit if he is sidelined.
This slate features three high-end point guards: Isaiah Thomas, Kyle Lowry, and Jeff Teague. Out of that bunch, I like Jeff Teague ($7k) the most. He struggled with his shot last game — 4-of-18 shooting — but still saw a nice workload, and is now playing at home. The second guy I would take is Kyle Lowry ($8k), but he is a riskier investment given his up-and-down performances in this series.
Marcus Smart ($5.3k) is going to be popular after his 41 DraftKings point outburst in the last game, but he is probably appropriately priced right now. I don’t mind using him as a final piece of the roster, but he isn’t one to prioritize tonight.
The value option I would consider tonight is George Hill ($4.4k). He has started to come alive over the last two games, posting 22 and 32 DraftKings points. He doesn’t have the biggest upside, but the Pacers desperately need someone to contribute offensively outside of Paul George, and Hill can fill that role.
Evan Turner ($6.6k) is the higher-end guy that I would target tonight as I want nothing to do with DeMar DeRozan against Paul George. Turner has put up 40 and 39 DraftKings points back-to-back, so it’s likely regression is coming, but he still should find himself around 30 DraftKings points with upside for more.
The only other options I would consider are Monta Ellis ($5.5k) and Kyle Korver ($4.2k). Ellis hasn’t been all that great recently, putting up 20 and 21 DraftKings points in back-to-back games at home, he was in the 30 DraftKings point range in the two games in Toronto. At his price, he offers a modest floor with big upside if he starts attacking the rim.
Korver is priced appropriately, and perhaps even overpriced at this point. He only offers upside in the scenario that he is locked-in from downtown, but he is the cheapest shooting guard that we can get away with playing tonight. He shouldn’t kill you unless he goes ice-cold from deep. Otherwise, he will hover around the 20 DraftKings point mark.
Paul George ($9.4k) has seen his price rise throughout the series, but that hasn’t stopped his inconsistent performances. He is always worth a look, but we have seen him score anywhere from 29 DraftKings points in a win in Game 4 to 59 points in a win in Game 1. There are probably better places to spend up, but I get wanting to use the biggest star on the slate.
After George, there are two comparable players in Jae Crowder ($6k) and Kent Bazemore ($5.9k). Crowder has been consistently underwhelming in this series, but he offers a solid floor of 25 DraftKings points — a total he has scored in three-straight games this series.
Bazemore has more upside but is a higher variance player. He has alternated huge performances with solid ones, and he’s probably the guy I would go with over Crowder due to that upside for higher scoring performances. So far this series, he has been able to collect rebounds and generate steals fairly consistently, so his value will hinge on the shot falling.
The guy that should be in your lineup for sure is DeMarre Carroll ($4.1k). He isn’t putting up monster scores, but at his price he has been contributing more than enough. In the last two games, Carroll has put up 27 and 21 DraftKings points, and more importantly he has seen over 30 minutes in both games.
There are three options on my radar at power forward tonight.
Paul Millsap ($8.7k) is going to be on everyone’s short list tonight after a 79 DraftKings point performance in Game 4. He has a terrific matchup with the Celtics frontcourt that only has gotten better with the Celtics’ shift to put Jonas Jerebko at the four spot.
Aside from the clear-cut stud option, it’s a pair of Celtics that stand out. Amir Johnson ($5.1k) and Jonas Jerebko ($4k) are both in play tonight, with Jerebko as close to must-play as you can get. Johnson has been solid since seeing a higher workload (29 DraftKings points in Game 3 and 28 DraftKings points in Game 4), and Jerebko has been phenomenal in the same circumstance with back-to-back games with 30+ DraftKings points.
It’s a two-horse race at center tonight.
Al Horford ($7.8k) took a back seat to Paul Millsap last game, but he is still in position to have a big game in Game 5. His workload is higher than it was at any point during the regular season, and Game 4 marked the only time in this series that he has been below 35 DraftKings Points.
Jonas Valanciunas ($6.7k) clearly has a matchup advantage, and the only thing holding him back from being the top center on this list is playing time. He fights foul trouble often, so projecting him for anything over 28 minutes is aggressive. Still, the Raptors need him to attack the Indiana Interior, and he has shown massive upside in this series.