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NBA DFS: DraftKings Tip Sheet 11/9

Golden State Warriors forward Kevin Durant (35) walks back to the bench with head coach Steve Kerr, left, during the second half of an NBA basketball game against the Los Angeles Lakers in Los Angeles, Friday, Nov. 4, 2016. (AP Photo/Alex Gallardo)
AP Photo/Alex Gallardo

I am not a political writer, and a daily DFS column isn’t the place I would choose to start even if I were interested in becoming one. It’s important to acknowledge, however, that regardless of the outcome of last night’s election, today is an emotional day for many around our country.

The beauty of DFS and the glory of sports, is that they can provide an escape. I don’t want to draw this out, but I simply want to say: that no matter how you woke up feeling this morning, my hope is that this piece — and others on this network — can provide some temporary relief from a stressful, emotional time.

About Last Night…

  • Kyle Korver is a game-time call after missing last night’s contest. Thabo Sefolosha played 35 minutes and Tim Hardaway Jr. played 29 in the win over the Cavaliers.
  • Andrew Wiggins played 41 minutes against the Nets and dropped 36 points (with six three-pointers) and eight rebounds. His usage is pretty secure, and he’s going to play monster minutes for Thibs.
  • It was a nice showing for Isaiah Whitehead: six points, seven assists and seven rebounds. He has some value play viability with Jeremy Lin out.
  • Marquese Chriss jumped Jared Dudley on the Suns’ depth chart, drawing 20 minutes of action in a start. He managed four personal fouls and minimal production, but he’s got big upside as he figures things out.
  • Alex Len started for Tyson Chandler, who was out for personal reasons. Len only played 17 minutes, but is in a pretty good spot against the Pistons if Chandler is ruled out again.
  • Al-Farouq Aminu left after four minutes with a calf strain, and is unlikely to play tonight versus the Clippers. Mason Plumlee should see his court time solidified, but the Trail Blazers have plenty of pieces to use at the four spot.
  • Darren Collison returned last night, albeit in a bench role. However, he played more minutes (28) than Ty Lawson (21) and was certainly better than him on the stat sheet. A changing of the guard will come soon.
  • Dorian Finney-Smith drew the start for the Mavericks, but Seth Curry stole the show with 31 minutes and 40+ DraftKings points. Curry should be a popular play tonight against the Warriors.

Slate Overview

Tonight’s main slate features 11 games, with seven teams implied to score 105 points or more. Two games feature a league-high 215 over/under, and the biggest spread of the night once again features the Warriors at 15.5-point favorites.

The not-so-sneaky game of the night is Nets-Knicks. The Knicks have the second-highest implied total of the night, and their games have been a hotbed for fantasy production so far this season. The Nets are better than many people thought coming into the season, and they are playing at a pace conducive to generating high-scoring contests. Even with the Knickerbockers favored by eight points, this is a spot to target.

The 76ers opened the betting market with a low 98.75 total, but it’s climbed up to 100 as of this writing. They are traveling to take on the Pacers, who have been miserable defensively so far this year. Indiana has the third-worst defensive rating at 109.3 points allowed per 100 possessions, while playing at a pace of 102 possessions per 48 minutes. The 76ers may be underpriced given their 90 offensive rating and willingness to match the Indiana pace (100 possessions per 48 minutes).

Top implied team totals:

  1. Warriors (vs DAL), 112.5 implied points
  2. Knicks (vs BKN)/Pacers (vs PHI), 111.5
  3. Clippers (vs POR), 109.5
  4. Spurs (vs HOU), 109.25
  5. Celtics (@ WAS), 108.25
  6. Wizards (vs BOS), 106.75

Point Guard

The lead guard position is absolutely loaded, which isn’t surprising given the massive 11-game slate. With plenty of great plays across multiple price points, I’m looking to be a little more budget conscious at this spot tonight.

John Wall and Isaiah Thomas are both great choices in a head-to-head matchup. Both teams are implied to score over 105 points, and neither team is defending particularly well at the moment. The edge goes to Thomas and his white-hot start to the season and current three-game streak of scoring 39 DraftKings points or better.

The bargain I’m most intrigued by at the early stages of lineup planning is Ish Smith. He’s coming off of a miserable game versus the Clippers — as are most of the Pistons — but he’s priced down to $5.1K and gets a matchup with the uptempo Suns. Detroit is currently playing at about 97 possessions per 48 minutes, whereas Phoenix is pushing 104 possessions per 48, signifying a huge jump in pace for a player who has speed in bunches.

  • Chris Paul, LAC ($8,700)
  • John Wall, WAS ($8,600)
  • Isaiah Thomas, BOS ($7,700)
  • Jeff Teague, IND ($6,200)
  • Dennis Schroder, ATL ($6,000)
  • Sergio Rodriguez, PHI ($5,500)
  • Ish Smith, DET ($5,100)
  • Marcus Smart, BOS ($4,500)
  • Patty Mills, SA ($4,300) — if Tony Parker out

Shooting Guard

With Seth Curry exploding for 41.5 DraftKings points in 31 minutes, he’s the value play of the night at $3K. The minutes have been there over the last three contests (27.3/game over that span), and the matchup with the uptempo Warriors should lend itself more towards a guard-heavy lineup for Dallas.

If you feel the need to have a higher-end option, Jimmy Butler is priced very nicely at $7.2K despite a less-than-stellar matchup with the Hawks on deck. Butler’s usage is safe despite the presence of Wade, and I’ll look to play Butler more on the road given the home/road splits Wade is showing early on.

  • Jimmy Butler, CHI ($7,200)
  • Avery Bradley, BOS ($6,500)
  • Monta Ellis, IND ($5,400)
  • Kent Bazemore, ATL ($5,000)
  • Marcus Smart, BOS ($4,500)
  • Seth Curry, DAL ($3,000)

Small Forward

Kawhi Leonard versus the Rockets seems like a dream matchup. Houston is oozing fantasy points to the opposition, Kawhi is enjoying the best start of a season in his career and he’ll see virtually mirror minutes of James Harden in all likelihood. He feels underpriced at $9.2K given the upside that he has flashed so far this season.

Carmelo Anthony is another of my favorite plays at only $7.6K. He’s playing huge minutes and is starting to score and rebound like the Melo we are familiar with. With the Knicks sitting on the second-highest team total of the night, getting their usage monster in your lineup is a no-brainer.

  • Kevin Durant, GS ($9,500)
  • Kawhi Leonard, SA ($9,200)
  • Paul George, IND ($8,400)
  • Carmelo Anthony, NY ($7,600)
  • Gordon Hayward, UTA ($6,800) — if George Hill out
  • Andrew Wiggins, MIN ($6,000)
  • Tobias Harris, DET ($6,000)
  • Kent Bazemore, ATL ($5,000)
  • Justin Anderson, DAL ($3,200)

Power Forward

Derrick Favors is starting to ramp up to his normal playing time — he played 29 minutes in his last outing — and he’s definitely underpriced when considering the upside he provides at full strength. The Hornets are a tough defense and this game should be a slugfest, but Favors should eat if he’s checked by the normal small-ball 4s the Hornets deploy. He’s not a must-play with the other value on the slate, but I like him quite a bit as one of the final pieces of a solid lineup.

Jahlil Okafor’s DraftKings scores since seeing an increase in his minutes limit to 24 per game: 21.75, 27.75 and 22.5. All three of those games came against good defenses (Charlotte, Cleveland, Utah), and he has the benefit of playing without Joel Embiid active in this contest. At $4.8K against a suspect defensive front line, Okafor and his high usage rate present one of the better value opportunities tonight.

  • Kevin Durant, GS ($9,500)
  • Draymond Green, GS ($7,900)
  • Paul Millsap, ATL ($7,700)
  • Derrick Favors, UTA ($5,800)
  • Jahlil Okafor, PHI ($4,800)
  • Ersan Ilyasova, PHI ($4,300)
  • Marquese Chriss, PHX ($3,000)


There are quite a few things to monitor at this position tonight.

First, Jonas Valanciunas is questionable. I’m not looking at any of his replacements should he not be available, but rather I would look towards Kyle Lowry at point guard to soak up a bit of extra usage.

Brook Lopez is a rest candidate in every back-to-back scenario for the Nets in the early going. Kenny Atkinson said he would monitor Lopez’s minutes after last night’s contest, so it’s possible he’ll be out or limited despite playing 28 minutes last night. If that’s the case, Justin Hamilton and Trevor Booker become great plays.

Frank Vogel is toying around with the idea of moving Nikola Vucevic to the bench, though no move will be made tonight. This doesn’t make me all that interested in playing Vooch, but those with a bit more risk tolerance could probably speculate on Bismack Biyombo at $4K. He’s obviously the better matchup to check Karl-Anthony Towns, and he’s been pretty productive in limited minutes so far this season anyways.

Tyson Chandler’s status is important, as Alex Len will need to play a decent chunk of minutes to match up with Andre Drummond should Chandler miss tonight’s game. Len will run you only $4K and has big upside against Drummond, should he be able to stay out of foul trouble.

  • Draymond Green, GS ($7,900)
  • Dwight Howard, ATL ($7,500)
  • DeAndre Jordan, LAC ($6,400)
  • Mason Plumlee, POR ($5,000)
  • Jahlil Okafor, PHI ($4,800)
  • Alex Len, PHX ($4,000) — if Tyson Chandler out
  • Bismack Biyombo, ORL ($4,000)
  • Al Jefferson, IND ($3,400)

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