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NBA DFS: DraftKings tip sheet 11/6

Milwaukee Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) makes a move to the basket against Detroit Pistons' Tobias Harris (34) and Jon Leuer, right, during the first half of an NBA preseason basketball game Monday, Oct. 17, 2016, in Auburn Hills, Mich. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)
(AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

Yesterday was a tough day on DraftKings, with five of the seven eligible games resulting in blowouts. That type of variance cuts short the minutes for stars and can create value that otherwise wouldn’t exist.

Let’s take a deeper look.

About Last Night…

  • Timberwolves-Thunder wasn’t available on DraftKings, but the contest followed the blowout pattern we saw last night. Karl-Anthony Towns, Russell Westbrook, Steven Adams and Enes Kanter all impressed here.
  • The one game projected to be a blowout was Cavaliers-76ers. So, fittingly, the defending champs won by only a point against a winless Philadelphia squad.
  • Frank Vogel pulled a Scott Skiles, cutting the minutes of his starters, most notably Serge Ibaka and Aaron Gordon. His team ended up coming back to beat a shorthanded Wizards squad, but changes could come sooner or later to the rotation here.
  • Andre Drummond now has three 20-rebound games this season. All three have come at home. It certainly has more to do with minutes than venue, but it’s a potential trend to monitor.
  • Paul George punted the ball into the stands after fouling Jimmy Butler, getting himself tossed from a game he probably wasn’t going to play much more in. The ball hit a fan, so it’s possible that he gets a suspension.
  • Of all the blowouts, the most surprising one for me was the Bucks obliterating the Kings from the opening tip. It’s my fault for believing in Sacramento, but this game was never close.
  • Second most surprising blowout? The Clippers destroying the Spurs. Both teams were on the second night of a back-to-back, but the Clips led by 15 after the opening quarter and never looked back.

Slate Overview

Tonight’s main slate features just four games. The target game is Suns-Lakers given the highest total of the night (217) and close spread (LAL -2).  This is the only game not featuring a team on the second night of a back-to-back.

Keep in mind that tonight’s main slate excludes Jazz-Knicks and Portland-Memphis. The main slate tips at 6 p.m. EST with Kings-Raptors.

Top implied team totals:

  1. Lakers (vs PHX), 109.5 implied points
  2. Celtics (vs DEN), 108.75
  3. Suns (at LAL), 107.5
  4. Raptors (vs SAC), 104

Point Guard

Giannis Antetokounmpo played last night, but it was an abbreviated outing. You couldn’t tell that fact simply by looking at his DraftKings score, as he put up 47 DK points in 25 minutes at home against Sacramento. His opponent tonight, Dallas, just isn’t good right now, so I don’t see any reason to stay away from the Greek Freak tonight.

On the other side of that matchup, JJ Barea needs to be in the conversation at one of your guard spots. He will probably start with Dirk Nowitzki out and the potential for usage is sky-high with Deron Williams potentially out as well. He isn’t dirt cheap anymore at $5,500, but he’s still a value for the role that it looks like he’ll step into in this contest.

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL ($9,700)
  • Isaiah Thomas, BOS ($7,500)
  • Eric Bledsoe, PHX ($7,000)
  • JJ Barea, DAL ($5,500)
  • Jordan Clarkson, LAL ($4,900)
  • Marcus Smart, BOS ($4,600)

Shooting Guard

DeMar DeRozan. 40 points. Lock of the century. Okay, so it’s not that simple, but at this point, fading DeRozan has been a fool’s errand. He would have met value at his $8,300 salary every night of the season thus far, and he’s scoring the most points per game in the NBA. The only way the Kings are stopping him is if they get blown out.

Another guy balling out to start the new campaign is Avery Bradley. He has one game below 30 DraftKings points this season, and it was his first game back from injuring his shoulder. Even in that game, he put up 25.25 DraftKings points, so the floor looks incredibly high for him right now.

  • DeMar DeRozan, TOR ($8,300)
  • Devin Booker, PHX ($6,200)
  • Avery Bradley, BOS ($6,000)
  • JJ Barea, DAL ($5,500)
  • Jordan Clarkson, LAL ($4,900)
  • Marcus Smart, BOS ($4,600)

Small Forward

The big news to monitor is the status of Rudy Gay. Right now we have to assume that he is out, given he missed last night’s contest in Milwaukee. The value should be with Omri Casspi again should Gay not suit up.

Assuming Rudy Gay is out once again, the top of the player pool belongs to the Suns. TJ Warren is like the mini-DeRozan in that he is on a terrific scoring streak that appears unsustainable. If it can continue in a pretty good matchup, he’ll certainly be a value play in this spot. Devin Booker is right behind him, and coming off of a game of 46 DraftKings points, might be the easier play at $600 cheaper.

Jaylen Brown should start again for the Celtics with Jae Crowder still out. He went off against the Cavaliers, scoring 37.25 DraftKings points in 35 minutes. What I am most interested in are those crazy-high minutes, which are incredibly valuable at $4,000.

  • TJ Warren, PHX ($6,700)
  • Devin Booker, PHX ($6,100)
  • Jabari Parker, MIL ($5,900)
  • Harrison Barnes, DAL ($5,900)
  • Wilson Chandler, DEN ($4,700)
  • Larry Nance Jr., LAL ($4,200)
  • Jaylen Brown, BOS ($4,000)
AP Photo/Jessica Hil

Boston Celtics’ Jaylen Brown. (AP Photo/Jessica Hill)

Power Forward

Yuck. The power forward position is kind of a mess on this slate, with one obvious play in Omri Casppi should Rudy Gay sit again. If that doesn’t happen, we are choosing from the likes of Jabari Parker and Larry Nance Jr. — players who are on nice hot streaks right now, but have questions about their minutes.

If you want to pay up here, Julius Randle is the guy I would consider, but it’s risky. He has had some monster performances this season — and it’s worth noting they have been in up-tempo matchups, like this one — but Luke Walton isn’t playing anyone heavy minutes to start the season.

  • Julius Randle, LAL ($6,200)
  • Jabari Parker, MIL ($5,900)
  • Larry Nance Jr., LAL ($4,200)
  • Omri Casspi, SAC ($3,900) — if Rudy Gay out

Center

Al Horford is still out for the Celtics, so that means we can look at Tyler Zeller again. He played an extraordinary game against the Cavaliers, netting 38 DraftKings points in 27 minutes of court time. His price has come up, but getting 20 DK points in 25 minutes of action doesn’t seem unreasonable.

Tyson Chandler has failed to reach 20 DraftKings points just once this season, and that came against the Clippers, who currently have the best defensive rating in the NBA. He is rebounding like a maniac right now, grabbing 18 rebounds in three of four games. The Lakers aren’t as bad at grabbing boards as the Pelicans or Warriors (two of the opponents Chandler took advantage of), but he should still be a solid option at this price.

  • Tyson Chandler, PHX ($4,600)
  • Tyler Zeller, BOS ($4,300)
  • Dwight Powell, DAL ($4,100)
  • Andrew Bogut, DAL ($3,800)

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