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NBA DFS: DraftKings Tip Sheet 11/5

New York Knicks center Joakim Noah talks ta a fan during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Wednesday against the New York Knicks, Nov. 2, 2016, at Madison Square Garden in New York. The Rockets won 118-99. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)
AP Photo/Mary Altaffer

After Russ-Durant and the homecoming of Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah, Dwight Howard will get a shot to extract revenge against a team, player and coach that he has a checkered past with. That’s the highlight of tonight’s seven-game main slate, aside from hopefully taking home some cash on DraftKings, of course.

About Last Night…

  • Scott Brooks promised to play Markieff Morris more with the bench unit, and it paid off with 18 points, nine rebounds, three steals, and a block. If Morris is going to be featured in the second unit, he’s a guy that needs attention in good matchups.
  • John Wall won’t play back-to-backs in the early going, including tonight at Orlando. Tomas Satoransky should draw the start, and we’ll get into the other beneficiaries below.
  • Josh Richardson returned for the Heat, going scoreless in 12 minutes. He should push Dion Waiters out of the starting lineup sooner than later, and Waiters is probably better served as a sixth man anyways.
  • Heat stars minutes watch: Goran Dragic, 36; Hassan Whiteside, 38.
  • DeMar DeRozan’s streak continues with another 40+ DraftKings-point game. His price is going to get absurdly high in the near future.
  • One angle I didn’t really take: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson as the Nets’ facilitator with Jeremy Lin out. He’s perfectly capable, and he dished six assists to zero turnovers against a solid defensive squad in the Hornets.
  • Regardless what you think about the Knicks, they are going to be a fun target when they can push the pace. All of their starters ate well in the win over Chicago, and they allowed Kristaps Porzingis (15 shots) to touch the ball.
  • Alvin Gentry, ladies and gentlemen. He opted to start Terrence Jones, who rewarded the DFS community with 19 points, a three-pointer, six assists, seven rebounds, a steal and four blocks, but played only 28 minutes in yet another Pelicans loss. After the game, Gentry admitted he should have played him more, so hopefully the team’s best players are allowed to see the floor.
  • Breaking news: the Mavericks are really old. Dirk Nowitzki is nursing a sore Achilles and will be out for at least a week. Deron Williams has a groin issue and looked terrible on Friday, going 3-for-14 in a cupcake matchup. With Dirk out and Williams ailing, J.J. Barea needs to be a nightly consideration. Harrison Barnes and Dwight Powell also will see extra value.

Slate Overview

Tonight’s main slate for DraftKings leaves out the Timberwolves-Thunder tilt, so we’ve got seven games to sift through tonight. The premiere matchup is (surprise!) Houston at Atlanta, with the highest over/under of the night at 218.5 and a tight spread with Atlanta favored by a mere 2.5 points. The Hawks have actually been pretty good defensively this year overall aside from their loss to the Lakers, but they are on the second night of a back-to-back and the Rockets are fully rested. Plus, Dwight versus Harden!

The Cavaliers have the highest implied point total on the night, but are also 13-point road favorites as they head into Philadelphia. The 76ers have been feistier than in years past, and the good news is Joel Embiid will be available for this game. Those two factors might keep it close…in the first half. I’m not going to force any Cavaliers into my lineups tonight.

Top implied team totals:

  1. Cavaliers (@ PHI), 109.5 implied points
  2. Hawks (vs HOU), 109
  3. Pacers (vs CHI), 107.5
  4. Rockets (@ ATL), 106.5
  5. Bulls (@ IND), 104.5

Point Guard

Over the last two games Chris Paul has been a monster, putting up 54.25 and 66 DraftKings points. Yet, somehow, his price has fallen pretty drastically from the $8.6K it was at just a month ago. The DraftKings pricing algorithm still fears the Spurs, and while their defense is still very good (sixth in the NBA in defensive rating), it isn’t the historic instant-avoid we saw last year. At $8.1K, Chris Paul is going to exceed value more often than not.

Ish Smith is consistently playing 30 minutes a night and finds himself in a pace-up spot at home against Emmanuel Mudiay and the Nuggets. Mudiay’s tendency to turn the ball over bodes well for Smith’s steal upside, while any uptick in pace will be good for a player who thrives on his speed. I like the value here at $5.2K.

As far as the John Wall situation, Tomas Satoransky will likely start. He didn’t look that good last night in 22 minutes of action, posting three turnovers to one assist and hitting just 2-of-6 shots. However, he has triple-double upside and a starter’s workload would be a boon at $3.5K.

  • James Harden, HOU ($11,600)
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL ($9,500)
  • Chris Paul, LAC ($8,100)
  • Elfrid Payton, ORL ($6,200)
  • Jeff Teague, IND ($5,800)
  • Ish Smith, DET ($5,200)
  • Patty Mills, SA ($4,300)
  • Tomas Satoransky, WAS ($3,500)

Shooting Guard

James Harden is clearly the top option in the highest scoring game of the night. His price is high, but it’s still not high enough for his new role. He needs around 60 DraftKings points to make value, and he’s done so in three out of five games this season. The floor is extremely high as well, with a low mark of 46.75 DraftKings points.

The value play I love at this position is Bradley Beal at just $5.3k. He had a great scoring game last night, and I think he’ll be asked to do more playmaking with John Wall taking the night off. The Magic are the fifth-worst defense in the NBA right now, allowing 106.3 points per 100 possessions.

The “big” injury news here is Will Barton remaining out for the Nuggets. Last time out it was Jamal Murray who started, but Jameer Nelson who thrived in his absence. This time, Gary Harris will return from injury to cloud things. This is a situation to avoid in cash games in my opinion.

  • James Harden, HOU ($11,600)
  • Evan Fournier, ORL ($6,100)
  • Eric Gordon, HOU ($5,600)
  • Bradley Beal, WAS ($5,300)

Small Forward

Paul George is still too cheap for his upside at $8.2K. The Pacers have made him more of a scorer in recent games, giving playmaking duties to the guards, but taking the ball out of your best players’ hands seems like a suboptimal strategy. The team’s losing ways should hopefully correct this. Underpriced, at home, and backed by the third-highest team total of the night, there is plenty to like about George in this spot.

The news we need to monitor here is a rib injury that threatens to keep Rudy Gay out of the lineup against the Bucks tonight. It’s a juicy matchup, but while the biggest beneficiary is probably DeMarcus Cousins overall, value will open up with Matt Barnes and Omri Casspi (is listed as a PF on DraftKings). I think I’d rather play Casspi than Barnes given the latter’s inconsistency, but at $4.1K there needs to be consideration in Barnes’ direction.

  • Kawhi Leonard, SA ($8,800)
  • Paul George, IND ($8,200)
  • Tobias Harris, DET ($6,200)
  • Markieff Morris, WAS ($5,500)
  • Matt Barnes, SAC ($4,100) — If Rudy Gay ruled out

Power Forward

DeMarcus Cousins is at a season-low in price and coming off his second-best game of the season. The Bucks are a tremendous matchup for bigs as they simply don’t have the defensive options to keep them off the boards, and nobody on Earth can defend Cousins when he wants to get to the bucket. Rudy Gay’s absence could funnel the offense through Cousins even more.

Much like Chris Paul, Blake Griffin’s price is too low for his talent. The Spurs are still a good defensive team, but the individual matchups with San Antonio’s bigs should hedge in Griffin’s favor.

  • DeMarcus Cousins, SAC ($10,200)
  • Paul Millsap, ATL ($7,900)
  • Blake Griffin, LAC ($7,500)
  • Tobias Harris, DET ($6,200)
  • Markieff Morris, WAS ($5,500)
  • Omri Casspi, SAC ($3,000) — If Rudy Gay ruled out

Center

Another day, another narrative. Dwight Howard will take on his former team, his newest least-favorite former teammate, James Harden, and the coach he clashed with in Los Angeles, at home. He looks re-engaged on both ends of the floor, and unless the Rockets give Clint Capela minutes to match up with Howard — this appears unlikely given Mike D’Antoni’s tendency thus far — there isn’t anyone on this team that is keeping him off the glass. Howard is priced at $8K, and he would have made value on that price every night but one so far.

  • DeMarcus Cousins, SAC ($10,200)
  • Dwight Howard, ATL ($8,000)
  • Andre Drummond, DET ($7,700)
  • DeAndre Jordan, LAC ($6,600)
  • Marcin Gortat, WAS ($6,000)

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