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NBA DFS: DraftKings Tip Sheet 11/4

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It’s back to the grind tonight with nine games on tap for the DraftKings main slate. There’s a ton to go over, so let’s dive right in.

About Last Night

  • The Rudy Gay train came to a stop last night. He still contributed over 20 DraftKings points but looked drained late in the game after starting out hot.
  • Myles Turner was one my favorite plays last night, but here’s why I don’t play him in cash if I can avoid it: 24 minutes, five fouls. Until he figures that out, he’s tournament-only for me on most nights.
  • I usually don’t target players against Paul George, but the Pacers are such a horrible defensive team it doesn’t matter much right now. They let up 125 points to the Bucks, with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker each chipping in 27 points.
  • Malcolm Brogdon split minutes evenly with Matthew Dellavedova and actually looked better than him. Jason Kidd is one of the most frustrating coaches for fantasy, so I’m not ready to trust in anyone outside of Giannis or Parker.
  • I played Nikola Jokic in tournaments, and he promptly picked up two fouls in the first few minutes of the game, ended with only three fouls, yet played 14 minutes. Whack-a-mole continues when it comes to the Denver bigs.
  • Jameer Nelson is the guy to target right now as a Will Barton’s backup. He played 34 minutes and put up 14-7-7.
  • Karl-Anthony Towns lives! 32 and 14 for the big guy and easily his best performance of the young season.
  • I was wrong about the Celtics, who turned Jaylen Brown into Jae Crowder and Tyler Zeller into Pau Gasol. Avery Bradley continues to be on fire to start the season with averages of 20.6 points, four assists, and 8.2 rebounds.
  • The verdict on Russ-KD I: the Thunder were lucky to be 4-0. Their guys looked terrified to play outside of Westbrook and Adams. Russ was still pretty solid for DraftKings even though he didn’t come close to meeting value.

Slate Overview

Nine games tonight, and with the Warriors back in action you can already guess who is projected to score the most points tonight.

Golden State will visit the upstart Lakers in the second game of a back-to-back, making this an intriguing spot to target. The over/under is easily the highest of the night at 228, and even with the Warriors favored by 11 points, this shapes up to be one of the most attractive games. If there is any emotional hangover from last night’s game, this Lakers squad looks good enough to take advantage and could keep it close.

The game you probably don’t want to watch, but should be targeting: Phoenix-New Orleans. This game has the second-highest over/under of the night, and Anthony Davis at home against a bad team is going to be the prime spot more often than not.

Top implied team totals:

  1. Warriors (@ LAL), 119.5 implied points
  2. Bulls (vs. NY), 109
  3. Lakers (vs. GS), 108.5
  4. Pelicans (vs. PHX), 107.25
  5. Hornets (@ BKN), 106.25

Point Guard

John Wall has been phenomenal to start the season, despite a pair of poor shooting performances and a whopping 19 turnovers in his first three games. He has accumulated a double-double in every game so far this season, scored no less than 39.75 DraftKings points, and still sits at $8.5k. His opponent tonight, the Hawks, are capable of playing great defense, but there are cracks as shown in their last outing against the Lakers.

The injury news tonight: Tony Parker is out for the Spurs, as is Jeremy Lin for the Nets.

Patty Mills will start for the Spurs in all likelihood, and he is priced at $3.8k. In his last start for Parker, Mills dropped 28.25 DraftKings points, but only played 24 minutes. He has not seen more than 25 minutes this season — and that was as a reserve — which doesn’t really peak my interest heading into Utah.

Greivis Vasquez is also out for the Nets, so Isaiah Whitehead, Randy Foye, and Sean Kilpatrick are going to be the beneficiaries of Jeremy Lin’s absence. Whitehead costs $3,600, but he’s not a good NBA player right now. Over his last two games he’s played 41 combined minutes, gone 5-for-16 from the field, committed seven personal fouls, and turned the ball over 10 times; I’ll pass on him in cash games.

More on Foye and Kilpatrick down below.

  • Damian Lillard, POR ($9,100)
  • John Wall, WAS ($8,500)
  • Goran Dragic, MIA ($7,100)
  • Eric Bledsoe, PHX ($7,000)
  • Rajon Rondo, CHI ($6,500)
  • Derrick Rose, NY ($5,600)
  • Deron Williams, DAL ($5,400)

Shooting Guard

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention DeMar DeRozan. He’s still only $8k, a valuation that he has outperformed every night so far this season. His usage isn’t quite Westbrookian, though it’s close: DeRozan ranks third in the NBA behind Russell Westbrook and Joel Embiid with a 38.1-percent usage rate. It won’t last, not on a team with other good players, but I doubt the team goes away from him while he’s scorching the Earth.

Picking up on the Nets value from earlier, Randy Foye and Sean Kilpatrick are both listed at shooting guard. Foye will suit up for the first time this season, and costs only $3k. We don’t know his role, and he’s simply not very good anymore, but if he draws the start, he’s a tournament flier to me. As for Kilpatrick, he costs $4.4k, saw the biggest role increase after Lin went down, and has scored at least 20 DraftKings points in every game but one thus far; he’s the play.

  • DeMar DeRozan, TOR ($8,000)
  • Devin Booker, PHX ($5,900)
  • Bradley Beal, WAS ($5,300)
  • Sean Kilpatrick, BKN ($4,400)

Small Forward

Kawhi Leonard’s price is the lowest it has been all season, which has me considering him in a matchup I desperately want to avoid. There’s only one time this season he wouldn’t have been a value at this price point, and that was a situation where he still put up 34 DraftKings points in 28 minutes as part of a blowout of the Pelicans. I don’t know how realistic rostering Leonard is tonight with other stars in better spots, but he’s the place I would pay up at small forward.

As far as value is concerned, Larry Nance Jr. is one option that should be worth a long look. The Lakers have the third-highest projected scoring total of the night, and Nance will stay in an increased role if Timofey Mozgov remains out with an eye injury. Nance has played 29 and 25 minutes the last two games, averaging 30 DraftKings points in the process.

  • Kawhi Leonard, SA ($8,300)
  • TJ Warren, PHX ($6,300)
  • Devin Booker, PHX ($5,900)
  • Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, CHA ($5,400)
  • Larry Nance Jr., LAL ($4,000)

Power Forward

Anthony Davis has disappointed twice this season, both in tough spots in road games in the second half of a back-to-back. Outside of those two games, his lowest score has been 69.75 DraftKings points. The Suns have bigs they can throw at him in Tyson Chandler and Alex Len, but I’ll take my chances with Davis at home trying to get his team their first win of the season.

You can use Nance here too, but Marvin Williams looks good at only $5.2k. He’s put up one dud this season (versus Boston) but otherwise has put up at least 27 DraftKings points per contest. This is a pace up game for him against an opponent that is not good defensively, including rebounding.

You can also look to Terrence Jones with Dante Cunningham suspended for tonight’s game, but Alvin Gentry’s unstable rotation makes him a riskier play.

  • Anthony Davis, NO ($10,900)
  • Draymond Green, GS ($7,800)
  • Paul Millsap, ATL ($7,700)
  • Dirk Nowitzki, DAL ($5,900)
  • Marvin Williams, CHA ($5,200)
  • Larry Nance Jr., LAL ($4,000)
  • Terrence Jones, NO ($3,500)


Hassan Whiteside is too cheap. He’s the same realm as Anthony Davis when it comes to fantasy points per minute, and so far this season he has been at 40 DraftKings or above three times out of four. The one exception came against DeMarcus Cousins, so I’m not worried. He is a value tonight despite the $8.4k price.

  • Anthony Davis, NO ($10,900)
  • Hassan Whiteside, MIA ($8,400)
  • Draymond Green, GS ($7,800)
  • Marcin Gortat, WAS ($7,900)

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