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NBA DFS: DraftKings Tip Sheet 11/2

New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23) drives the lane against San Antonio Spurs forward LaMarcus Aldridge during the second half of an NBA basketball game, Saturday, Oct. 29, 2016, in San Antonio. San Antonio won 98-79. (AP Photo/Darren Abate)
AP Photo/Darren Abate

No rest for the daily fantasy degenerates wicked. After eight games of action last night, we have 10 to sift through on tonight’s slate. First, let’s recap the notes from yesterday’s games.

About Last Night…

  • Everyone in the Magic starting five had a nice game except for Aaron Gordon, who continues to be miscast as a small forward. Plenty of sharp people were on him last night, but I just can’t pick a spot to play him until his role is more defined or he becomes dirt cheap.
  • Joel Embiid has to be considered, even with his minutes limit. He put up 18 and 10 with four blocks. Think of him as a play in the Enes Kanter mold for now.
  • Erik Spolestra seems to be loosening up with Goran Dragic. He stated earlier this year that he wanted to keep his minutes in the 30-32 range, but he blew by that with 41 (with the overtime period). I had been hesitant to use Dragic due to minutes concerns, so this is certainly a great development.
  • Anthony Davis continues to dominate the competition. 35-16-2-3-3 for him puts him right up there with Russell Westbrook and James Harden.
  • The Grizzlies gave one away, resting Marc Gasol and Mike Conley in the first game of a back-to-back. This situation is going to be frustrating, and we should expect more of the same with Chandler Parsons once he returns.
  • Steph Curry came alive with a monster third quarter that basically ended the game at Portland. He’s still not doing enough yet to consider him an elite commodity in daily fantasy, at least outside of tournament play.

Slate Overview

A 10-game slate greets us tonight, with plenty of scoring on tap as far as Vegas projections are concerned. 10 teams boast implied totals of 104 or above and six over/unders are at least 210 points as of mid-morning.

One of the games to target looks like the Rockets at Knicks. Both teams are traveling on a back-to-back and neither team was playing any sort of defense before this matchup. This should be an uptempo shootout with both Houston and New York checking in with top-five implied team totals.

Top implied team totals:

  1. Atlanta (vs. LAL), 109.75 implied points
  2. Portland (@ PHX), 109.75
  3. NY Knicks (vs HOU), 108
  4. LA Clippers (vs OKC), 107.75
  5. Houston (@ NY), 107

Point Guard

Russell Westbrook is a guy I’ve played each time out this season, but I’m staying away tonight. His $12.9K price tag is a big ask considering his matchup with Chris Paul and a Clippers defense that tied for fourth-best in defensive rating a year ago.

The top priced player to look at is probably Paul (Look for James Harden down below) at a strangely low price of $8.4K. He has been over 40 DraftKings points in two of his three games this season, with the lone exception coming against the slowest paced team in the league (Utah). The Thunder are currently playing at the fastest pace in the NBA.

  • James Harden, HOU ($11,200)
  • Chris Paul, LAC ($8,400)
  • John Wall, WAS ($8,200)
  • Kemba Walker, CHA ($7,500)
  • Isaiah Thomas, BOS ($7,300)
  • Eric Bledsoe, PHX ($6,900)
  • Mike Conley, MEM ($6,600)
  • Rajon Rondo, CHI ($6,300)
  • Brandon Knight, PHX ($5,300) – if Devin Booker out
  • Sergio Rodriguez, PHI ($4,900)

Shooting Guard

James Harden is definitely in play tonight in that great Knicks matchup, but as of right now there’s not a bunch of value plays that are going to make it extremely easy to fit him in. I do have concerns about him playing 38 minutes last night and now traveling, but it’s worth noting that he played on zero days rest 20 times last year, averaging 38.6 minutes, 30.8 points on 46.5 percent shooting, 5.7 rebounds and 8.2 assists.

If Devin Booker sits out with his toe issue, Brandon Knight might become the premiere value play when it comes to guards. He hasn’t started out the season on a great note, but he’s still garnering a usage rate over 25 and gets a Trail Blazers defense that ranks in the bottom five in the league right now.

  • James Harden, HOU ($11,200)
  • DeMar DeRozan, TOR ($7,800)
  • Dwyane Wade, CHI ($6,500)
  • Eric Gordon, HOU ($5,600)
  • Bradley Beal, WAS ($5,400)
  • JJ Redick, LAC ($4,300)

Small Forward

Carmelo Anthony is clearly the top option on the slate when it comes to small forwards. He’s been churning out 30+ DraftKings-point games this season, and it’s clear he’s not sacrificing anything with Derrick Rose in town. Taking the highest usage guy on a team facing the Rockets and their league-worst defense doesn’t seem like a bad idea.

If you’re interested in a deep cut, Solomon Hill played 35 minutes last night as Alvin Gentry tightened his rotation, and he only costs $3,400. The two factors working against him are:

  1. We don’t know if Gentry’s rotation will stay the same tonight.
  2. Solomon Hill probably isn’t very good.

But 35 minutes at $3,400 is always in play, so if no true value opens up there’s a Hail Mary play available. Dante Cunningham is in the same situation at $3,000.

  • Carmelo Anthony, NY ($7,500)
  • Tobias Harris, DET ($6,100)
  • Jae Crowder, BOS ($5,600)
  • JaMychal Green, MEM ($4,700)
  • Solomon Hill, NO ($3,400)
  • Dante Cunningham, NO ($3,000)

Power Forward

Anthony Davis is certainly in play again. Life will be harder for him with Marc Gasol in line for his normal workload, though.

Paul Millsap is the other stud I’m looking towards with a fantastic matchup at home against the young Lakers. In the two games he has received a full workload he’s put up 48.25 and 50 DraftKings points.

Power forward is looking like a nice spot to look for some value. Marvin Williams is taking on the 76ers and will only cost you $5K. JaMychal Green is playing the Pelicans, who don’t rebound at all outside of Anthony Davis. Jon Leuer is a big part of the Detroit rotation at under $4K, while Richaun Holmes has upside at $3.7K as the beneficiary of Joel Embiid sitting.

The big news so far is Al Horford missing tonight’s game with a concussion. Two main direct beneficiaries come to mind: Amir Johnson and Tyler Zeller. While Zeller is strictly a center, you can play Johnson at power forward and he’ll only run you $3.4K.

  • Anthony Davis, NO ($10,900)
  • Paul Millsap, ATL ($8,000)
  • Tobias Harris, DET ($6,100)
  • Marvin Williams, CHA ($5,000)
  • JaMychal Green, MEM ($4,700)
  • Jon Leuer, DET ($3,800)
  • Richaun Holmes, PHI ($3,700)
  • Amir Johnson, BOS ($3,400)

Center

Atlanta Dwight Howard looks like he actually cares about defense again, and that has shaped up great for DFS. In the two games he’s received his full work — he got into foul trouble against the 76ers — he has put up 45.75 and 41.75 DraftKings points.

Marc Gasol should be full-go tonight against the Pelicans, which means he should be near the top of your list for centers. New Orleans allowed Greg Monroe to put up six points, 11 rebounds, six assists and a block in 18 minutes of action last night.

  • Anthony Davis, NO ($10,900)
  • Dwight Howard, ATL ($7,600)
  • Marc Gasol, MEM ($6,100)
  • Amir Johnson, BOS ($3,400)
  • Tyler Zeller, BOS ($3,000)

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