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NBA DFS: DraftKings Tip Sheet 11/1

Jim Cowsert/Zuma Press/Icon Sportswire

We’ve got another excellent eight-game DraftKings slate to break down on this Tuesday. Let’s dive right into last night’s news and get on the road to finishing in the money.

About Last Night…

  • The Nuggets have a staple of bigs who can be extremely useful for fantasy, but it’s unlikely you’ll ever know which one to use. Nikola Jokic was afforded 34 minutes in the previous game and turned in a monster performance, and it was Jusuf Nurkic’s turn against the Raptors. He played 38 minutes to Jokic’s 22 and racked up 50 DraftKings points.
  • Are the Bulls really this dominant? The schedule says no — two wins over opponents in the second game of a back-to-back, one over the Nets — but the results scream towards a better team than any of us thought heading into the season.
  • Dwight Howard is focusing on rebounding and defense, and it’s paying off. The Hawks are 3-0, and Dwight is averaging 12.3 boards and 3.3 blocks in 26.3 minutes of action per game.

Slate Overview

Tonight’s slate features eight games, including one very interesting contest and one that I won’t touch with a fifty-foot pole.

The crown jewel of the night is Golden State at Portland, where the Warriors currently sit as 4.5-point favorites. The game total is an excellent 226, and this one projects to be competitive throughout with a ton of playable options.

As for the gross game? Just stay away from Jazz-Spurs and vomit-worthy 186 point total.

Top implied team totals:

  1. Golden State (@ POR), 115.25 implied points
  2. Indiana (vs LAL), 111.5
  3. Portland (vs. GS), 110.75
  4. New Orleans (vs. MIL), 104.75
  5. LA Lakers (@ IND), 103

Point Guard

Damian Lillard is the top-priced player in the pool, but he might be worth it at home in what projects to be the highest scoring game of the night. He averaged 36.5 points and 6.5 assists against the Warriors in the regular season last year, including his 51-point bomb against them in Portland.

Giannis Antetokounmpo may be the best high-end option at the position tonight. He hasn’t scored fewer than 44.5 DraftKings points on the season, yet his price is still below $9k. He is in a pace-up matchup against a bad defensive team, and he’s virtually unguardable as it is.

The value options are plentiful as well, with six options in the $6k-$4k range I’m considering. My favorite of the bunch is Elfrid Payton, who has played well this year despite his team’s collective dysfunction. He gets the 76ers and is worth a long look at $5.6k.

  • Damian Lillard, POR ($9,500)
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL ($8,900)
  • Jeff Teague, IND ($6,000)
  • Tim Frazier, NO ($5,900)
  • Elfrid Payton, ORL ($5,600)
  • Ish Smith, DET ($5,400)
  • Sergio Rodriguez, PHI ($4,700)
  • Kris Dunn, MIN ($4,100) – likely to start for the injured Ricky Rubio

Shooting Guard

Evan Fournier is the highest priced shooting guard I’m willing to pay for. He’s only $6k, and has put up at least 30 DraftKings points in two-of-three games. The matchup with the 76ers is terrific, and as long as there is no blowout one way or the other, you can pretty easily project Fournier for over 35 minutes.

Allen Crabbe is where I’m looking for value at both the shooting guard and small forward positions tonight. He’s played 29, 31, and 28 minutes so far this year and is an integral part of the Trail Blazers’ lineups when they go to small ball. In this fast paced matchup against the Warriors, I’d expect to see more of the same, so he’s looking like a steal at only $4k.

  • Evan Fournier, ORL ($6,000)
  • Zach LaVine, MIN ($5,700)
  • Dion Waiters, MIA ($4,200)
  • Allen Crabbe, POR ($4,000)

Small Forward

Kevin Durant’s price has taken a major hike upwards, as he’s $600 more expensive than the last time he was available. He’s averaging 60 DraftKings points per game and finds himself in the best spot of the night, so it’s not out of the question to spring for his services, but the better play might be Paul George at home against the Lakers. George will run you $2,200 less than Durant on tonight’s slate.

If you want to dip into the mid-range, Rudy Gay is very much worth consideration, even on the second night of a road back-to-back. He has put up at least 32 DraftKings points in every game, including 32.75 in a matchup with Kawhi Leonard last week. He draws another tough defender in Justise Winslow tonight, but his current form and price can’t be denied right now.

  • Kevin Durant, GS ($10,500)
  • Paul George, IND ($8,300)
  • Rudy Gay, SAC ($6,200)
  • Marcus Morris, DET ($5,300)
  • Allen Crabbe, POR ($4,000)

Power Forward

Anthony Davis was slowed in a bad spot against the Spurs last week, but this is a great matchup for him to get back on track to destroying the rest of the NBA. The Bucks are a bottom-five defense when it comes to rebounding and aren’t anything to write home about in general, so they have a tough task containing the only guy who seems to grab boards for New Orleans in Davis. Plus, you know, he’s really good at doing pretty much everything else, too.

Gorgui Dieng just got paid, and he’s off to an extremely hot start this season. He dropped 40 DraftKings points in the opener and followed it up with 38 DraftKings points in the the next game. He gets a rematch with the Grizzlies tonight — the team he put 40 DK points on — and he’s still priced a bit too low in my opinion. He’s not a high usage guy, but he’s rebounding, blocking shots, and collecting double-doubles.

  • Anthony Davis, NO ($10,800)
  • Kevin Durant, GS ($10,500)
  • Draymond Green, GS ($7,700)
  • Gorgui Dieng, MIN ($6,200)
  • Richaun Holmes, PHI ($3,700) – Should see increase playing time with Jahlil Okafor out

Center

The aforementioned Anthony Davis and Gorgui Dieng are eligible here, but so is a guy I didn’t get to in the last section: Draymond Green. He continues to rack up huge scores on DraftKings despite not scoring particularly well, and he is a great play in his matchup against the Trail Blazers. Green offers upside in every category, and is one of the true triple-double threats each and every night.

Mason Plumlee will be opposite Green for plenty of tonight’s game, and he’s really bounced back since a poor showing against the Jazz on opening night. Plumlee didn’t have tremendous success against the Warriors in the regular season last year but during the playoff series between these two clubs he nabbed double-digit boards three times out of five games. Note that was before Golden State dealt Andrew Bogut and plummetted to the bottom-five in the league in rebounding.

  • Anthony Davis, NO ($10,800)
  • Draymond Green, GS ($7,700)
  • Gorgui Dieng, MIN ($6,200)
  • Marc Gasol, MEM ($6,100)
  • Mason Plumlee, POR ($4,600)

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