Fantasy Basketball

DFS NBA: DraftKings Tip Sheet 3/21

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Games to Target

Golden State at Minnesota (Over/Under 232): After the Warriors were held down against the Spurs, I fear for the young Timberwolves, as Stephen Curry and his teammates should come out focused for this one. Curry is the top play of this game, maybe of the night, despite the 13-point spread in favor of the visitors. There’s a lot to like on the Timberwolves side of things as well, with Ricky Rubio, Zach LaVine, Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns all under consideration for me in this pace-up game.

Sacramento at Chicago (O/U 219): DeMarcus Cousins is one of the guys who will push Steph Curry for play of the night among studs, as he gets the Bulls’ defense against bigs, which continues to be awful. Everyone on the Bulls is in play, specifically Jimmy Butler, Derrick Rose and Taj Gibson, with Doug McDermott an interesting flier. Pau Gasol could return in this one, but note that he’ll likely be on a minutes restriction of some sort if he does resurface.

News and Notes

  • Kenneth Faried (back) is out. Darrell Arthur should start, but Jusuf Nurkic has been seeing regular playing time over the last five contests. I don’t love targeting the Cavaliers’ defense, though.
  • Kevin Love (illness) is questionable. Channing Frye would likely start in place of Love, potentially at center, as the Cavaliers have experimented with a starting lineup that features LeBron James at the 4.
  • Elfrid Payton (elbow) returned to action last night, but came off the bench. Expect the Magic to be cautious with him until he’s ready, but there’s now a three-headed monster at point guard in Orlando.
  • Pau Gasol (knee) could return tonight. Cristiano Felicio could still start, with Gasol seeing limited minutes off the bench. As such, it’d be best to take a wait-and-see approach with the skilled big guy, despite the juicy matchup.
  • Andrew Bogut (toe) is doubtful. This is great news for Karl-Anthony Towns, who avoids seeing one of the better defenders at his position. The potential matchup with Draymond Green is tough, but he’ll have a length advantage at the very least.
  • Marcin Gortat (back) and Bradley Beal (pelvis) are questionable. Both guys have had issues with their minutes down the stretch, so it’s tough to trust them right now anyways. Nene would likely start for Gortat, while Garrett Temple would draw the start for Beal.
  • Zach Randolph and Vince Carter both returned to action in the Grizzlies’ last game, while Ray McCallum started at point guard. Additionally, Memphis will sign Jordan Farmar to a 10-day contract, which likely signals the end of Briante Weber’s tenure with the club. Just some housekeeping on the goings-on of one of the most injured teams in the league, but some of that injury value is drying up.

Point Guard

Stud to Target

Stephen Curry, GS ($10,300): Transcendent players like Stephen Curry typically respond to being shut down in a very big way, and this is the perfect spot to expect a huge performance from the likely MVP. He loves to put on a show on the road, and he’s coming off a game in which he shot 1-for-12 from three-point range. If you can afford to pay up, the only dent in Curry’s potential value is a blowout concern.

Others to consider: Kemba Walker, CHA ($8,100) — Isaiah Thomas, BOS ($7,600)

Value Play

Derrick Rose, CHI ($5,800): Over his last 15 games played, Rose has dropped below 25 DraftKings points scored just one time. In that same stretch, he’s topped 30 DK points 11 times, and while the Bulls’ injury woes played a part in some of his bigger performances, his consistency has him underpriced in this favorable spot. Rose isn’t a must-play by any means, but he could easily outperform expectations tonight.

Shooting Guard

Stud to Target

Monta Ellis, IND ($6,300): Ellis is hitting his stride as a Pacer, hitting at least 34 DK points in six of seven games. His minutes have been heavy, and we should expect a slight decrease in that workload at home against the 76ers, but the boost he gets from playing such a weak team should offset that decline somewhat. At only $6.3K, there’s plenty of upside with a solid floor here.

Others to consider: Andrew Wiggins, MIN ($6,400) — Klay Thompson, GS ($6,800)

Value Play

Hollis Thompson, PHI ($4,400): It’s been plug-and-play for plenty of 76ers recently, and Thompson seems to always see 30+ minutes that lead to 20+ DK points. Tonight might be the last night you can use him for cheap value, as Robert Covington is expected to return on Wednesday. There isn’t a great ceiling for Thompson, but we can easily expect 20 DK points if he sees 30 or more minutes.

Small Forward

Stud to Target

Kawhi Leonard, SA ($8,300): Leonard’s price is still too low for the floor that he provides every night, and we can expect 35-45 DK points pretty much any time the Spurs are in a matchup that’s remotely close. I’d think that would be the case as San Antonio travels to Charlotte to match up with the under-the-radar Hornets. It’s worth noting that LeBron James’ price is also too low, as he checks in at $9.2K.

Others to consider: LeBron James, CLE ($9,200) — Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL ($9,800)

Value Play

Otto Porter, WAS ($4,900): The value at small forward isn’t great, but what else is new? I like Porter due to his recent production — he’s reached 25 DK points in five straight — and the fact that he could end up playing extended minutes if Marcin Gortat and Alan Anderson are ruled out.

Power Forward

Stud to Target

Jabari Parker, MIL ($5,800): The top play at power forward is DeMarcus Cousins, Parker should be a solid option on a per-dollar basis. His price has dropped despite only one truly bad game — 12 DK points in 27 minutes versus Memphis — and the upside is still high with his increased usage.

Others to consider: DeMarcus Cousins, SAC ($10,400) — Draymond Green, GS ($7,800)

Value Play

JaMychal Green, MEM ($5,500): Zach Randolph has returned to the lineup and Ryan Hollins displaced Green from the starting center slot last game, but the production remained the same for everyone’s favorite value power forward. There’s some risk here, but the Grizzlies could lean on him more at center with the Suns’ starting lineup of twin towers Alex Len and Tyson Chandler, perhaps giving him more minutes.


Stud to Target

Alex Len, PHX ($6,400): It’s the last stand for me and Alex Len, as his efficiency has been absolutely dreadful as of late. I can’t pass up the matchup with the Grizzlies, especially considering that Len has put up 50 DK points the last two times he’s faced this squad.

Others to consider: Greg Monroe, MIL ($5,600) — Andre Drummond, DET ($7,600)

Value Play

Ian Mahinmi, IND ($4,800): Targeting centers against Philly has been profitable all season long, and Mahinmi has been undervalued all season long. If he sees 30+ minutes in this matchup, he should crush his expected points contribution, and we can expect 22-25 DK points here.

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