Games to Target
Sacramento at New Orleans (Over/Under 215.5): This discussion begins with DeMarcus Cousins, who turned up his level of play against the Pelicans last season. Perhaps it was to assert his dominance over more celebrated Kentucky product Anthony Davis, or just a good matchup, but Boogie averaged 27 points, 17 rebounds and five assists, along with a steal and a pair of blocks, against the Pelicans last season. So, I’ll be back on Cousins tonight, and there should be value at the New Orleans guard slots as well.
Chicago at L.A. Lakers (O/U 202): The Bulls are eight-point favorites on the road here, but the Lakers are typically competitive at home, and Chicago often plays down to its competition. I’m considering pretty much any starter from the Bulls outside of Tony Snell, and the guards for the Lakers are interesting as well, despite more uncertainty with that group.
News and Notes
- There are four Nuggets questionable for tonight’s game: Jameer Nelson (wrist), Joffery Lauvergne (toe), Darrell Arthur (quad) and Nikola Jokic (knee). If all these big guys miss this game, Kenneth Faried would be the best play on Denver. If Nelson plays, downgrade Mudiay a bit.
- Bradley Beal (nose, concussion) doesn’t have much clarity on his status, but it appears he’s still in concussion protocol. Depending on his status, Garrett Temple could see some value against the Nuggets.
- Rudy Gay (eye) is out, leaving Omri Casspi as the likely starter. There are a bunch of guys who could see more minutes in this scenario, but the likely beneficiaries are Casspi, Darren Collison and Marco Bellineli.
- Tyreke Evans (knee) is questionable, and Anthony Davis (concussion) is doubtful. Norris Cole, Jrue Holiday and Ryan Anderson all have an arrow directly pointing up in this game.
- Carmelo Anthony (knee) is out and Jose Calderon (groin) is questionable. Lance Thomas is the guy with Anthony out, but it’s a bit more unclear with Calderon. The likely scenario is Langston Galloway seeing a big bump in minutes, with Jerian Grant getting a bigger role in a backup scenario.
- Kyle Lowry (wrist) is questionable. If he were to sit, I’d give DeMar DeRozan the biggest boost, but Cory Joseph would be a solid value play.
- John Henson (back) and O.J. Mayo (hamstring) are both out against the Grizzlies. This is a bad matchup, but Greg Monroe could see a slight boost in playing time with Jerryd Bayless continuing to be the lead guard off the bench.
- Nikola Mirotic (appendectomy) is out until after the All-Star break. Taj Gibson should receive steady minutes with Bobby Portis seeing solid minutes as a reserve. Derrick Rose (hamstring) and E’Twaun Moore (hamstring) will play.
- Kobe Bryant (shoulder), Lou Williams (illness) and Julius Randle (leg) are all questionable tonight. If Kobe and Williams both miss, Jordan Clarkson and D’Angelo Russell will be worth a look in all formats. It sounds like Randle will play, but Larry Nance Jr. and Brandon Bass would have more value tonight if he was out.
Point Guard
Stud to Target
Jrue Holiday, NO ($6,700): If Tyreke Evans is out, I’ll be locking this pick in with high confidence. Holiday is probably the best guard on the Pelicans’ roster, but he’s stuck in a relatively limited sixth-man role. If they’re forced to unleash him it’ll come at the perfect time with a matchup against Rajon Rondo and the Kings on deck.
Others to consider: John Wall, WAS ($9,100) – Derrick Rose, CHI ($6,000)
Value Play
D’Angelo Russell, LAL ($5,100): If Lou Williams sits, Russell should be a fantastic value. He’s been playing good basketball over the last month or so, and the only thing that could limit him in this spot is his incompetent head coach.
Shooting Guard
Stud to Target
Khris Middleton, MIL ($7,200): At this price, taking Middleton is almost like stealing when you look at his production. The matchup is not a great one, but the Bucks already play at a rather deliberate pace, and that hasn’t slowed Middleton’s ability to rack up huge DraftKings scores.
Others to consider: DeMar DeRozan, TOR ($8,000) – Jimmy Butler, CHI ($8,800)
Value Play
Arron Afflalo, NY ($5,200): Carmelo Anthony out to rest his knee, Afflalo is the likely option to take over the lead scoring role. He’s been pretty good for stretches as a scorer, so he should be a solid option with the potential increase in volume.
Small Forward
Stud to Target
Paul George, IND ($8,900): Danilo Gallinari is appealing tonight, but I tend to shy away from him on the second night of back-to-backs. Instead, I’ll recommend George as the top small-forward play, as he’s coming off of back-to-back strong games.
Others to consider: Danilo Gallinari, DEN ($7,000)
Value Play
Alonzo Gee, NO ($4,100): Gee has had stretches of fantasy relevancy in the past, and he’s quietly back in the conversation now. With three straight games of over 20 DK points, and his minutes trending upwards, he’s worth a look in this plus matchup.
Power Forward
Stud to Target
DeMarcus Cousins, SAC ($11,200): So Cousins flopped on the second night of a back-to-back after playing 45 minutes the night before. It proves he is human, but I think he begins playing like a cyborg once again tonight. As I stated earlier, he lit up the Pelicans last season, and I expect him to do so again tonight.
Others to consider: Paul Millsap, ATL ($8,300) – Kenneth Faried, DEN ($5,700)
Value Play
Bobby Portis, CHI ($3,500): Portis should receive a larger portion of the bench minutes, and I consider him blowout-proof given his rookie status. He’s a relatively high-usage guy given his role, and the matchup really couldn’t be much better.
Center
Stud to Target
Al Horford, ATL ($6,800): The center position is pretty healthy tonight, but with other appealing high-priced options, grabbing a safe guy like Horford on the cheap isn’t a bad choice. The Pacers are vulnerable on the inside, and he doesn’t need to do all that much to be a valuable pick.
Others to consider: Marc Gasol, MEM ($7,500) – Marcin Gortat, WAS ($7,100)
Value Play
Myles Turner, IND ($4,600): The minutes are a bit troubling, but his per-minute production has been phenomenal. If you absolutely need to save at center, there are few options in this price range at any position that have Turner’s upside.