Freshman NBA draft prospects are tricky to peg, especially at the season’s outset. Now that it’s late January, we at least have a clue as to how these youngsters compete and what they need to work on.
There’s been significant shuffling in the pecking order throughout this season, especially since a couple of highly touted teenagers have wavered while others overachieved.
When it comes to overall draft value, how does this crop of youngsters shake out right now? We based our rankings on the players’ statistical production, skill demonstration and tangible long-term NBA potential.
10. Stephen Zimmerman, UNLV F (7’0″)
There were several candidates to land No. 10, including Dwayne Bacon, Thomas Bryant and Cheick Diallo. But Zimmerman claims the spot thanks to his recent two-way impact and versatile potential.
UNLV’s interim head coach Todd Simon has utilized Zimmerman much better than recently-fired coach Dave Rice: Zimmerman’s coming off three straight double-doubles and multi-block games during the Runnin’ Rebel’s three-game win streak. The 7-footer’s length and athleticism fuel his budding slashing skills and rebounding instincts. He also has a promising outside jumper, hitting 5-of-11 from long-distance so far.
9. Deyonta Davis, Michigan State PF/C (6’10”)
Sparty’s sleeper freshman can get off the floor in a hurry. Those springs and long arms have helped Davis rack up 18.4 points, 11.5 rebounds and 4.3 blocks per 40 minutes so far.
He works almost exclusively in the paint these days, which means it’s hard to project him as a standout NBA forward. However, his knack for protecting the rim and collaborating with teammates out of the post is encouraging:
One thing I did not expect: Deyonta Davis is already really good at being patient, eluding the post double, and kicking out from the block.
— Sam Vecenie (@Sam_Vecenie) January 21, 2016
8. Diamond Stone, Maryland C (6’11”)
Stone falls to the latter portion of our rankings due to his lack of defensive quickness and positional interchangeability. Size and strength are simply not as coveted as they used to be.
Don’t worry, there’s a sizable role for Stone in the Association. He can score in the post, draw fouls, knock down his free throws (80 percent!) and rebound the rock. And when opponents clog the paint on pick-and-rolls, he’ll confidently knock town those 15-17 foot jumpers.
7. Skal Labissiere, Kentucky PF/C (6’11”)
After starting the season as a top three prospect, Labissiere nearly disappeared during December and early January. Kentucky’s much-hyped big fella has a lot of work ahead of him in order to win the trust of high-lottery suitors due to underwhelming rebounding and wavering offensive execution.
The good news is Labissiere has shown signs of improvement recently, including an 11-point, three-block outing at Arkansas Thursday. Joshua Riddell of BBALLBREAKDOWN.com explains that we should still patiently await the long-term blooming of the 6’11” athlete:
…The high school-to-college adjustment was a bit jarring. There will probably be similar growing pains to the NBA, but his complete offensive potential is too much to pass up. He’ll need time to physically mature, but he could turn into a useful defensive player as well, and he’s already averaging 3.4 blocks per 40 minutes.
6. Ivan Rabb, California PF (6’11”)
Leading the Golden Bears with 64 percent shooting, Rabb has made a living off finding the soft spots in the defense and crashing the glass. He’s averaging a robust 13.0 rebounds per 40 minutes and is fresh off a monster game against Arizona State:
Ivan Rabb was big-time tonight, 20-8-6 with 3 blocks. Still 18 years old. Stud.
— Jonathan Wasserman (@NBADraftWass) January 22, 2016
Rabb isn’t a top-shelf athlete like his fellow fab-freshman Jaylen Brown, so there are questions about how he’ll fare in tomorrow’s NBA that emphasizes spacing and speed. It’s a good thing he owns a nice mid-range jumper from the elbow.
5. Jamal Murray, Kentucky G (6’5″)
In SEC play, Murray has offered up-and-down shooting performances, shaky lateral defense and fewer assists. He drifted down the frosh totem pole a bit because he’s been burned by quicker guards, which makes him a liability at the pro level.
Nevertheless, Kentucky’s favorite Canadian cracks our top five because he’s still showing stretches of superb shot-making. Given his size, handles and shooting touch, he’ll be a quality offensive option in the NBA:
When Murray doesn't play with the ball but makes strong definitive moves he is a different player. Can't play with the ball.
— Seth Greenberg (@SethOnHoops) January 22, 2016
4. Jaylen Brown, California F (6’7″)
Brown continues to unleash top-tier slashing talent and end-to-end athleticism on Cal’s foes. The 6’7″ forward has delivered a clinic on how to attack the hoop in transition, and he’s converting 72 percent at the rim, according to Hoop-math.com.
Mid-range and perimeter shooting has been the biggest concern surrounding his NBA future. Fortunately, he’s shown signs of improvement in that department, hitting 39 percent from three-land in conference play. He needs to keep improving from deep and polish his in-between creativity in order to be a convincing high-lottery commodity.
3. Henry Ellenson, Marquette F (6’10”)
Thanks to his multidimensional ball skills, rebounding production and long-term shooting potential at the 4 spot, Ellenson edges out the likes of Brown and Murray for third place. Kevin O’Connor of the Sporting News describes the youngster’s end-to-end mastery:
(Ellenson) uses his wide frame to box out consistently, but it’s his nose for the ball that sets him apart. He isn’t overly athletic but he’s fantastic at tracking the trajectory of the ball and fighting relentlessly for it. And when the ball does come his way, he always looks ahead. Whether it’s a direct assist, or one pass ahead that ultimately leads to a basket, Ellenson consistently displays the talent to accurately deliver passes to reward springing teammates.
2. Brandon Ingram, Duke F (6’9″)
Ingram has held the No. 2 mantle behind LSU’s Ben Simmons on most mock drafts and big boards for weeks now, and he’s earned it. In fact, some prognosticators think he could give Simmons a run for his money due to his shooting prowess. He not only owns a nice delivery, but he has a keen sense of where to find high-percentage opportunities:
Love that baseline drift by Ingram on the Allen drive. Little things like circling up out of PnR or drifting baseline on drives show feel.
— Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) January 16, 2016
Through 19 games, Ingram has showcased a streamlined perimeter jumper en route to 40 percent shooting from beyond the arc. In addition, he’s flashed the ability to attack off the bounce, protect the rim and make plays in transition. The only substantial weakness in his game is his slender frame; sometimes he gets bullied on defense and while he’s driving to the basket.
1. Ben Simmons, LSU F (6’10”)
Despite a couple of less-than-dominant games this past week, Simmons still has a firm grip on the top spot. He’s by far the most dynamic and versatile first-year prospect.
I’ve never seen a point forward or wing impact the game without a jumpers like he does. Everyone has fawned over Simmons’s playmaking skills, but his post scoring, defensive talent and instincts are nearly as impressive. If he eventually develops a jumper in two or three years, he’ll undoubtedly be an elite NBA weapon.
Statistics gathered from Sports-Reference.com, accurate as of Jan. 22.